Archive for April, 2010

NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10 Round 2

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So, umm. That was quite a first round — particularly that first round upset that was the Montreal Canadiens.

I don’t have much time for commentary tonight. It’s late, and I gotta get to bed. But what a topsy turvy scenario the Eastern Conference is in this year. The Pens jumped waaay up in equity after the top three teams in the East were knocked out. Craziness! Here’s how the simulator fared in the first round:

Washington_Capitals  0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291
New_Jersey_Devils    0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071
Buffalo_Sabres       0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058
Pittsburgh_Penguins  0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041
Ottawa_Senators      0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007
Boston_Bruins        0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020
Philadelphia_Flyers  0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020
Montreal_Canadiens   0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008

San_Jose_Sharks      0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110
Chicago_Blackhawks   0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166
Vancouver_Canucks    0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090
Phoenix_Coyotes      0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041
Detroit_Red_Wings    0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023
Los_Angeles_Kings    0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030
Nashville_Predators  0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010
Colorado_Avalanche   0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016

So a bit of a rough (4/8) there. To be fair, that Washington/Montreal series would probably go Washington’s way most times you flip that coin, and the others were much more even coin flips: with the “most likely upsets” from all coming true (Det over Phx, Bos over Buf, and Phi over NJ). So what does the next round hold? Well my sim results look like this:

Pittsburgh_Penguins   0.611 0.332 0.122
Boston_Bruins         0.482 0.236 0.078
Philadelphia_Flyers   0.518 0.263 0.089
Montreal_Canadiens    0.389 0.169 0.046

San_Jose_Sharks       0.648 0.304 0.202
Chicago_Blackhawks    0.561 0.341 0.243
Vancouver_Canucks     0.439 0.242 0.161
Detroit_Red_Wings     0.352 0.114 0.059

The Penguin’s probability of winning the cup jumped over 8%. Chicago is the sim’s favourite though despite the tougher Western conference matchups. Pittsburgh should have a much easier time getting to the finals — but what happens when they get there is a question.

Anyways, I gotta get to bed. Enjoy the next round of the playoffs!

Heraldk

Curvy Road

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Curvy Road

From our trip to Barcelona over Christmas in 2009.

NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10

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For previous years, check out: 08/09, and 07/08.

So the simulator likes the Capitals at a hefty 29.1%. Not as big a favourite as previous years (Detroit at 33% in 2008 and Boston at 30.8% in 2009). Despite the Sharks winning the Western conference this year, the Blackhawks are favoured higher by more than 5%. Considering that the Sharks struggled down the stretch and relied on a few extra OT “Bettman Points” to clinch the division (the Hawks actually had *more* wins). Vancouver is the next favourite coming in at 9%.

The most likely “upsets” in the first round are Detroit over Phoenix (45.1%), Boston over Buffalo (40.7%), and Philadelphia over New Jersey (40.1%).

The Canadian teams in the East drew tough first round matches against Washington and Pittsburgh, and as a result their overall chance of winning the cup are hurt tremendously.

Washington_Capitals  0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291
New_Jersey_Devils    0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071
Buffalo_Sabres       0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058
Pittsburgh_Penguins  0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041
Ottawa_Senators      0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007
Boston_Bruins        0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020
Philadelphia_Flyers  0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020
Montreal_Canadiens   0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008

San_Jose_Sharks      0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110
Chicago_Blackhawks   0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166
Vancouver_Canucks    0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090
Phoenix_Coyotes      0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041
Detroit_Red_Wings    0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023
Los_Angeles_Kings    0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030
Nashville_Predators  0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010
Colorado_Avalanche   0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016

I’ll be running the simulator for each round of the playoffs again this year. More comments to come, but I gotta get my picks ready for the couple of playoff pools I’m in this year.

Heraldk

Edit: thanks Darse for pointing out that Philly doesn’t play Pittsburgh. Fixed!

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