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Archive for May, 2012
NHL Playoff Predictor 2012 Round 4
0Well here we are, back to the stanley cup playoffs. The LA kings walked all over Phoenix en route to a very impressive cup-run. They are looking like the favourites in most people’s books to take down New Jersey. The Rangers had a lot of trouble with the Devils, and ultimately couldn’t prevail.
NY Rangers 0.601 0.370
New Jersey 0.399 0.206
Phoenix 0.478 0.196
Los Angeles 0.522 0.228
So the predictor sits at a 7/14 going into the final round. What does it like for the stanley cup final?
New Jersey 0.506
Los Angeles 0.494
Hmm. So very close. Given the way that LA got there, I’d have to give them the nod as the favourite. But this should be a very interesting playoff series. Too bad I’m going to have trouble watching them. All the games have been scheduled at 8pm eastern, which is 1am in my current place of residence. So maybe one of the weekend games I’ll get a chance to watch.
Herald
NHL Playoff Predictor 2012 Round 3
0Ahh, playoff hockey. The last update was rushed, so I’ll go back to the first round to have a look at how we’ve done so far:
NY Rangers 0.657 0.391 0.180 0.093
Boston 0.807 0.566 0.354 0.218
Florida 0.305 0.056 0.012 0.003
Pittsburgh 0.629 0.374 0.214 0.123
Philadelphia 0.371 0.178 0.080 0.037
New Jersey 0.695 0.282 0.103 0.043
Washington 0.193 0.058 0.019 0.006
Ottawa 0.343 0.096 0.037 0.014
Vancouver 0.641 0.407 0.227 0.118
St Louis 0.650 0.408 0.234 0.124
Phoenix 0.516 0.194 0.074 0.026
Nashville 0.417 0.206 0.094 0.039
Detroit 0.583 0.333 0.179 0.088
Chicago 0.484 0.171 0.061 0.020
San Jose 0.350 0.139 0.064 0.024
Los Angeles 0.359 0.143 0.067 0.025
This has been a strange playoffs. “Home Advantage” didn’t seem to offer the benefit it usually does, and we saw pre-playoff favourites Boston, Pittsburgh and Vancouver all fall in the first round. Oops. As a result, the predictor did worse than in past years, going 5/8. Of the series, I watched a bunch of the Pittsburgh/Philadelphia series. It was one of the more entertaining series … but a little crazy that Pittsburgh gave up big leads to lose games they probably should’ve won.
On to the next round!
NY Rangers 0.717 0.416 0.223
Philadelphia 0.546 0.276 0.132
New Jersey 0.454 0.210 0.092
Washington 0.283 0.098 0.031
St_Louis 0.643 0.410 0.249
Phoenix 0.436 0.168 0.072
Nashville 0.564 0.248 0.122
Los Angeles 0.357 0.174 0.079
Yikes, what a weird playoffs. The Rangers nearly fell to washington in 7 games, and if they had the predictor would’ve completely bricked this round. 1/4 isn’t too bad right? The Kings are putting on a clinic for how to knock off the top seeds in the conference. Apparently they are the first #8 seed team to ever defeat the number 1 and 2 seeds in a single NHL playoff – and they made it look easy. Now if only I had picked them in my playoff pools …
In the East, the Devils made fairly short work of the Flyers – a team that has a lot of offensive firepower but their goaltending has struggled … and the rangers had a lot more trouble than expected against washington. The Capitals sure got a lot of benefit from some fine goaltending from their 3rd string goalie. Wow did Holtby ever play well. But it wasn’t quite enough to beat the rangers.
Alright, so the conference finals are up next. Here’s what the predictor says for the matchups:
NY Rangers 0.601 0.370
New Jersey 0.399 0.206
Phoenix 0.478 0.196
Los Angeles 0.522 0.228
The rangers are favourites as expected, but I expect them to have problems with the Devils. The Devils are relatively rested and the Rangers have had two game 7′s already.
In the West, Phoenix and LA make a pretty unlikely matchup. The simulator likes LA, and I do as well – they seem to have the right combination of depth, hot goaltending, and confidence … and Phoenix should be a relatively easy opponent compared to Vancouver and St. Louis.
Herald
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