Here’s the results:

Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388
Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040



Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164
Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159
Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035


The Hurricanes play spoiler to the Bruins which makes my program off there. Not too sure how many people picked the ‘Canes over the Bruins, but I don’t think there were many. The Caps/Pens played an incredible series to 7 games, and it was as close as I (and my program) expected. Out west though, the program did much better with both the Red Wings and Blackhawks making it through as predicted. With this round done, giving us a 7/12 record. A couple of too close to call series, and the ‘Canes pulling off a pair of upsets are a quick way to explain what happened so far this year.

What’s up for the next round? The teams are quite evenly matched, but there’s a bit of surprise pick for the west.


Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.547 0.214
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.453 0.158


Detroit_Red_Wings 0.488 0.305
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.512 0.322


That’s right, the program likes the Hawks. This was the reason I went with the hawks and bruins in my playoff pools … but thanks to the ‘Canes, I now have no shot to win those.

Herald


Boston_Bruins 0.814 0.634 0.458 0.308
Washington_Capitals 0.649 0.321 0.117 0.051
New_Jersey_Devils 0.603 0.339 0.143 0.070
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.495 0.209 0.084 0.036
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.505 0.216 0.087 0.038
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.397 0.136 0.055 0.021
New_York_Rangers 0.351 0.073 0.027 0.008
Montreal_Canadiens 0.186 0.071 0.029 0.010



San_Jose_Sharks 0.706 0.474 0.276 0.145
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.720 0.435 0.227 0.110
Vancouver_Canucks 0.617 0.276 0.121 0.049
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.688 0.390 0.217 0.107
Calgary_Flames 0.312 0.118 0.044 0.014
St_Louis_Blues 0.383 0.124 0.042 0.012
Columbus_Blue_Jackets 0.280 0.083 0.031 0.009
Anaheim_Ducks 0.294 0.101 0.043 0.014


In summary, the predictor didn’t do a bad job, but it did get 3 series wrong giving it a 5/8 record starting off this playoffs. The biggest upset was Anaheim over San Jose — a series that San Jose apparently didn’t even show up for. Besides that, the other two series that the predictor got wrong were really close. Carolina managed to hit runner-runner to win their series by forcing a game 7, and then scoring two goals to tie and go ahead late in the 3rd period. Thanks for screwing up my playoff pools, Carolina! The other series, my predictor had Pittsburgh and Philly only a few percentage points apart, and so I’m not really that concerned that it picked the wrong side there.

Looking ahead, here’s the output for the next round:


Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388
Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040



Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164
Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159
Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035


Boston has a huge edge going against Carolina, and Detroit has a similar edge against the ducks. But the other matchups are *much* closer. The program gives the slight edge to the Caps, but given how much trouble the Caps had with the Rangers, I wouldn’t totally be surprised to see the Penguins move on. The Canucks/Blackhawks series isn’t quite that close, and Chicago is certainly looking like a good option.

Herald


Boston_Bruins           0.814 0.634 0.458 0.308
Washington_Capitals     0.649 0.321 0.117 0.051
New_Jersey_Devils       0.603 0.339 0.143 0.070
Pittsburgh_Penguins     0.495 0.209 0.084 0.036
Philadelphia_Flyers     0.505 0.216 0.087 0.038
Carolina_Hurricanes     0.397 0.136 0.055 0.021
New_York_Rangers        0.351 0.073 0.027 0.008
Montreal_Canadiens      0.186 0.071 0.029 0.010



San_Jose_Sharks         0.706 0.474 0.276 0.145
Detroit_Red_Wings       0.720 0.435 0.227 0.110
Vancouver_Canucks       0.617 0.276 0.121 0.049
Chicago_Blackhawks      0.688 0.390 0.217 0.107
Calgary_Flames          0.312 0.118 0.044 0.014
St_Louis_Blues          0.383 0.124 0.042 0.012
Columbus_Blue_Jackets   0.280 0.083 0.031 0.009
Anaheim_Ducks           0.294 0.101 0.043 0.014


It’s been a long time since I’ve played games like this. I’ve been playing Texas Hold’em pretty seriously for a couple of years, so it’s kind of interesting to revisit some of these silly games to see if there is anything of interest. We played quite a few games, actually, that I’d like to note down for future reference because they were all quite fun. So here’s the rules for some fun kitchen games that have a little depth to them.

• 727: Players get two cards down, and one up. The aim of the game is to be the closest to the total of 7 or 27. Face cards count either ten points or half a point. An ace counts either 1 point or eleven. On each round, players are asked one at a time if they want one more card added face up to their hand, followed by a round of betting. If all players pass on a card, then the game is over, but otherwise another round is dealt. The game can last quite a few rounds! After the last round, players then simultaneously indicate whether they are attempting to win by being closest to 7, by being closest to 27, or to both. Half the pot is awarded to the closest to 7 (who indicated they were trying to win that side), and half is awarded to the the closest to 27 (who indicated they were trying to win that side). To win both, the players who indicated so have to be closest on both sides.
• Auction: Each player is dealt two down cards. Then a card is turned up in the middle of the table for each player in the hand. Players then make a blind bid. The person who bids the most chooses the card they want. The next highest bid chooses the next card and so on. When all the cards are gone, another set of cards is dealt in the middle. This is repeated until all the players have 7 cards each. A round of betting happens after that. The person with the best high hand takes half the pot and the person with the best low hand takes the other half.
• Ten Card Regrets: There are 5 rounds to this game. The object of the game is to partition 10 cards into two 5 card poker hands: one that is a low hand and one that is a high hand. On each round, players get two cards and must decide whether to put them on the left side to be part of the low hand, or on the right side to be part of the high hand. At the end, the person with the best high hand takes half the pot and the person with the best low hand takes half the pot.
• Tic-Tac-Toe Hold’em/Omaha: Players are dealt two or four cards depending if they are playing the hold’em or omaha variant of the game. The key difference is the community cards are dealt in a 3×3 grid of cards. First, the flop is the four cards that form the sides of the grid. The turn is the four corner cards, and the river is the middle card of the grid. Players then make the best poker hand they can from the cards in their hand and any of 8 sets of three cards from the board. These sets are the three horizontal lines, three vertical lines, and the two diagonals. You can play Hold’em, Omaha High, or Omaha High Low.

These were my favourites from the night. Do you have any fun kitchen games I can deal next time?

Heraldk

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119

Detroit_Red_Wings   0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars        0.319 0.178

So what’s left? The Stanley cup finals start tomorrow night and it should be a great series. So I gave my predictor one final spin to see what it says. It should come as no surprise that Detroit is heavily favoured by the program:

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.295
Detroit_Red_Wings   0.705

While I’d be happy to say my program went 14/15, I’m still kinda rooting for the penguins. They are an exciting team to watch with a hell of a lot of talent at a very young age. Whoever wins though, the series should be one for the ages.

Heraldk

Montreal_Canadiens  0.616 0.348 0.147 Detroit_Red_Wings  0.772 0.530 0.380
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056 Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114 San_Jose_Sharks    0.483 0.180 0.094
New_York_Rangers    0.432 0.189 0.064 Dallas_Stars       0.517 0.199 0.107

The simulator goes 3 for 4 this round with the only one not going its way being the Montreal-Philly series. Overall, the simulator’s predictions have been 11 for 12. Not too shabby huh?

Here are the predictions of my simulator for the conference finals:

Pittsburgh_Penguins     0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers     0.421 0.119


Detroit_Red_Wings       0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars            0.319 0.178


So according to the program, Detroit has just shy of a 50% chance to win the whole thing, and their likely opponents is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Dallas and Pittsburgh are very close for 2nd place and Philly is not liked as much by the program.

See Round 2 and Round 1 for more information.

Heraldk

How’d it do at predicting the results? Well let’s have a look. I removed the later round predictions from the last post just to clean this up and make it easier to read. Correct predictions are in bold.


Montreal_Canadiens  0.720 Detroit_Red_Wings   0.811
Boston_Bruins       0.280 Nashville_Predators 0.189

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590 San_Jose_Sharks     0.634
Ottawa_Senators     0.410 Calgary_Flames      0.366

Washington_Capitals 0.481 Minnesota_Wild      0.468
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519 Colorado_Avalanche  0.532

New_Jersey_Devils   0.477 Anaheim_Ducks       0.414
New_York_Rangers    0.523 Dallas_Stars        0.586


Not bad huh? In every case, the favourite team of each match was the one that won. Three of the series went right down to the wire though, and I honestly thought Washington was going to beat Philly in game 7. They were a feel good story this year, along with the Oilers late season push to the playoffs that fell *just* short. San Jose and Montreal almost choked in the first round on series leads, but managed to pull through in the end.

So what does the simulator say for the next round? Once again the first column is the probability of winning that round. The second column is the probability of winning the conference final, and the third column is the probability of taking home the cup. This run is one million playoff simulations seeded with the results of the first playoff round.

Montreal_Canadiens  0.616 0.348 0.147
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114
New_York_Rangers    0.432 0.189 0.064
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056

Detroit_Red_Wings  0.772 0.530 0.380
San_Jose_Sharks    0.483 0.180 0.094
Dallas_Stars       0.517 0.199 0.107
Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039


Detroit, Dallas, Montreal, and Pittsburgh are the favourites according to the simulator. The only selection that is a bit surprising for this round is Dallas – but I’m not too surprised by that considering some of the numbers they put up this year. If they can shut down Thornton, they’ve got a pretty good shot at the conference finals.

Overall Detroit still has the highest probability of winning the cup, up to 38% now. Montreal and Pittsburgh are neck and neck for second place in probability of winning the cup. Dallas and San Jose are next and the last three have a 6% or less chance.

Now that the first round is out, the last remaining Canadian team is my second favourite team in the league: the Montreal Canadiens. So since the Oil are down and out, I’m cheering for them. Push that 14.7% edge boys!

Heraldk

I did pretty well in the tournament, although I got shortstacked before the tables merged, and when they did I had to get lucky to double up a couple of times. I doubled through Bryce when my K9 rivered a pair against his AQ. Sorry, Bryce. Once I doubled up a couple times I managed to last until we passed the bubble. A few hands after everyone made the money, I got down to just 2K in chips with the blinds being 500/1000 and I had to post the big blind. The button called, and so did the small blind so I pushed my T9. The flop came QJJ, but I couldn’t hit my straight against Duane’s top pair of queens. Oh well, that’s how it goes.

It was a great night, and I’m glad we got such a great turnout.

Heraldk

There definitely is a bit of a thrill when you win at a gambling game. The more money at stake, the bigger the thrill when you win. I experienced this particular phenomena when I managed to get in on Mansion’s $1000 free bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers at the start of last year’s NFL football season. My friend Mike and I sat in front of the TV glued to it until the last play of the game and we were cheering like crazy throughout the game. When there’s a fair amount of money on the line, it’s exciting and fun.

So it’s pretty easy to see how the gambling thing can be a problem. Fortunately for me, I know enough about the math behind the games that I know who has the edge most of the time. I would never slap down a $1K bet without first making sure that I was a) sure that my edge was there, and b) sure that I was okay with losing that money if worst came to worse.

So I don’t really truly gamble in the same way that so many people get themselves in trouble do. I mostly play poker where I have definitely shown that I have an edge for the limits that I play. The couple of times I’ve done other gambling, I’ve either known I had an edge (like that $1K free bet at mansion where the edge was huge since it was free), or I’ve been willing to throw away $60 playing blackjack or craps for a couple hours.

Playing poker so much though has changed my outlook on a lot of things. One thing that is definitely different is my outlook on money is a little different. Once you’ve played poker for awhile, the face value of the currency you’re playing with changes. It kind of loses its meaning in the sense that $100 is just a stack of chips you could lose or win at any given moment. It’s kind of weird, but being able to sit down for a few hours and win a couple hundred dollars playing $100NL with .5/1 blinds makes it possible for me to add to my yearly revenue by a significant amount. It’s only really bounded by the amount of time I have to play (which these days isn’t that much, but I still get in a few sessions most weeks).

I kind of think that that effect of poker on my life has been a bit negative. It’s hard to regain a respect for how much money is worth and how hard it is for most people to earn it after you’ve played online poker seriously for as long as I have (and I haven’t really been playing that long really). The other negative aspect that is less severe for me is a bit of a crisis of conscience when you realize that the money you’re winning is being taken from the wallets of people who may not have the self control to realize that they’ve lost next month’s rent cheque. I deal with that thought with the following argument: “Will those players stop playing if I don’t play? No. Well then I’m not changing anything by playing and being the one to take that money from them”. Think that’s faulty reasoning? Let me know. I’m curious about this issue. Without a doubt, it is a parasitic action, but I’m not sure what I can do about the other person’s problem – particularly if they are an unknown person I’m facing through online poker (which is how I play the bulk of the time).

So there’s some negative effects of playing poker, but there’s a lot of reasons that I continue to play. The financial results certainly don’t hurt, but it’s not just that. I enjoy the competition. Playing these games lets me battle wits with other players and it can keep me sharp. When I’m playing my best, I’m seeing a lot of things happen in front of me and I can tell you a lot of what’s going on.

Playing good poker also teaches patience and handling of tough times. The variance in poker is sky-high, and that means that to play well you have to be able to take the tough luck hands without letting them get to you or you’ll start playing poorly (on tilt as it were). You need to be able to objectively back away from a particular situation and assess whether you indeed made the appropriate decisions regardless of the outcomes. This is a skill that helps a lot with life.

Poker contains a lot of mathematics, some of it simple, some of it quite a bit more complex. There is a lot you can do with math (despite people who will tell you that poker is primarily a psychological game), and learning to apply math to specific situations in poker is an essential skill to getting good at the game. Likewise, mathematics helps you with situations in life too. To tell you a quick story, my mom was telling me about some advice she heard some people were giving in a “learn what to do before retiring” seminar. The advice was that you should replace all your appliances a year before retiring, with the idea being that these appliances would then not likely need replacing throughout retirement saving a lot of stress. This advice struck me as pretty wrong considering that there was no part of this advice that took into consideration how old the existing appliances were. You might be replacing an appliance that is still working great and has an expected lifetime of 5 or 10 more years – effectively throwing away part of your existing investment in the appliances you currently own. And who’s to say the appliances you buy aren’t going to fail during your retirement? The proper solution here is to replace appliances that need replacing, and wait until your other appliances require replacing. Meanwhile, the money you didn’t spend on new appliances gains interest. I fail to see why this is a worse solution.

My life has been affected drastically because of my time spent playing poker. For the most part, I think it has been for the better. I feel like I am able to keep myself sharper and more able to analyze situations objectively, and the monetary considerations certainly don’t hurt.

Heraldk