Sports

Well that was a fun round. Dwayne Roloson and the Tampa Bay Lightning very nearly toppled Boston. It was a pretty sick run for that team. Vancouver kind of waltzed past the San Jose, although it was a pretty hard fought series. Here’s how the predictor did for this round:


Boston_Bruins       0.718 0.315
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066


Vancouver_Canucks   0.707 0.480
San_Jose_Sharks     0.293 0.139

The predictor goes 2/2 this round, for an overall record of 11/14.

Boston_Bruins           0.377
Vancouver_Canucks       0.623


The predictor likes Vancouver, and I wouldn’t mind seeing the cup come back to Canada. As an Oiler fan it is a bit painful to see the Canucks succeed … but I guess I couldn’t begrudge them winning their first cup. I’m a bit conflicted though — I entered a playoff pool and have in that Boston to beat Vancouver. If that happens, I win the 126 entrant for-bragging-rights pool. So I guess the series is win-win for me. I’m looking forward to watching the matches from Canada!

Herald

The NHL seems to have a quicker turnaround this year between the first and second rounds, so I’m trying to get this post out in a hurry. The first round of the playoffs was about as exciting a round as I think I can remember. Several multi-goal deficits were erased, lots of OT, lots of game 7s… makes me wish I could’ve watched more of the games than I got to.

Here’s a quick recap of the first round:

Washington_Capitals 0.464 0.252 0.114 0.048
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.594 0.277 0.139 0.061
Boston_Bruins       0.703 0.421 0.257 0.136
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.664 0.355 0.189 0.089
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.336 0.125 0.046 0.014
Montreal_Canadiens  0.297 0.123 0.047 0.016
Buffalo_Sabres      0.406 0.184 0.070 0.025
New_York_Rangers    0.536 0.263 0.139 0.063


Vancouver_Canucks   0.725 0.557 0.418 0.290
San_Jose_Sharks     0.555 0.313 0.130 0.064
Detroit_Red_Wings   0.566 0.259 0.086 0.035
Anaheim_Ducks       0.387 0.142 0.042 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.613 0.293 0.119 0.055
Phoenix_Coyotes     0.434 0.145 0.047 0.017
Los_Angeles_Kings   0.445 0.150 0.077 0.034
Chicago_Blackhawks  0.275 0.143 0.081 0.038

The predictor goes 6 for 8 this year in the first round – losing on the NYR and PIT bets. The Penguins suffered the loss of Malkin and Crosby which they couldn’t really recover from (tough to lose those guys), but they made it a series. The rangers put up a good fight but couldn’t hold onto a couple of leads that should probably be games they win.
I was rooting for the Habs to upset the bruins, but that didn’t happen … and the Canucks managed to almost lose their series after taking a 3-0 lead.

So what do we have for the next round?

Washington_Capitals 0.610 0.260 0.100
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.407 0.232 0.093
Boston_Bruins       0.593 0.386 0.188
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.390 0.123 0.034

Vancouver_Canucks   0.726 0.535 0.371
San_Jose_Sharks     0.585 0.210 0.103
Detroit_Red_Wings   0.415 0.118 0.048
Nashville_Predators 0.274 0.137 0.063

The Bruins are still favourites out of the East to win the cup, but they’ve got a tough match ahead against the flyers. Meanwhile the Capitals have the edge on the lightning by a fair margin. In the West, the Canucks are heavy favourites again, but their success will depend on how they respond to the almost-first-round-collapse against the Hawks. Definitely Chicago was a tough first round draw though, and they have a very deep team so they should be up for it. San Jose has the edge against Detroit, but that series could probably go either way. It’s tough to bet against the wings. Probably the series to watch this round.

Herald

For previous years see 2008, 2009, 2010

I don’t think it should be a surprise to anyone that Vancouver is heavily favoured to win the cup this year. A couple of interesting notes:

Boston is the favourite out of the east this year, according to the simulator, despite sitting in 3rd in the East. This comes out of a having one of the best goals for/goals against ratios in the conference. They also benefit from a first round match against the Canadiens who have a low goals for total for the year.

Pittsburgh also surprises as being a second favourite in the East — also benefitting from a favourable first round matchup against the Lightning who have a very high goals against total for the year.

The West is a lot more ordinary in the ranking, with the favs being Vancouver, San Jose, and Detroit.

Washington_Capitals 0.464 0.252 0.114 0.048
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.594 0.277 0.139 0.061
Boston_Bruins       0.703 0.421 0.257 0.136
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.664 0.355 0.189 0.089
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.336 0.125 0.046 0.014
Montreal_Canadiens  0.297 0.123 0.047 0.016
Buffalo_Sabres      0.406 0.184 0.070 0.025
New_York_Rangers    0.536 0.263 0.139 0.063


Vancouver_Canucks   0.725 0.557 0.418 0.290
San_Jose_Sharks     0.555 0.313 0.130 0.064
Detroit_Red_Wings   0.566 0.259 0.086 0.035
Anaheim_Ducks       0.387 0.142 0.042 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.613 0.293 0.119 0.055
Phoenix_Coyotes     0.434 0.145 0.047 0.017
Los_Angeles_Kings   0.445 0.150 0.077 0.034
Chicago_Blackhawks  0.275 0.143 0.081 0.038

Looking forward to more playoff hockey! Let’s go!

Alas, the Montreal Canadiens couldn’t keep the magic alive. So instead, it is the seventh seed Flyers that make it to the cup final against the Chicago Blackhawks. The Hawks looked mighty strong against a strong Sharks team, and there’s probably no surprise which of the Hawks and Flyers it likes better. But first, here’s a review of the last round:

Philadelphia_Flyers   0.576 0.180
Montreal_Canadiens    0.424 0.106

San_Jose_Sharks       0.441 0.303
Chicago_Blackhawks    0.559 0.411

The predictor goes 2/2 this round making it 9/14 overall. Not a bad recovery after a topsy turvy first round!

The Stanley cup final starts on Saturday, and unfortunately for me, the games all start late — probably too late for me to watch any of them live. Oh wells. At any rate, here’s what the predictor says about the final:

Philadelphia_Flyers   0.287
Chicago_Blackhawks    0.713

No surprise, really. It might be an exciting series though…

Heraldk

What a crazy year for the NHL playoffs. The teams that make the semifinals? Seeds 1 and 2 in the west, and seeds 7 and 8 in the east! Yeesh.

Pittsburgh_Penguins   0.611 0.332 0.122
Boston_Bruins         0.482 0.236 0.078
Philadelphia_Flyers   0.518 0.263 0.089
Montreal_Canadiens    0.389 0.169 0.046

San_Jose_Sharks       0.648 0.304 0.202
Chicago_Blackhawks    0.561 0.341 0.243
Vancouver_Canucks     0.439 0.242 0.161
Detroit_Red_Wings     0.352 0.114 0.059

So the predictor did a good job, going 3/4 this time around. The exception was Montreal’s 7 game masterpiece against the Pittsburgh Penguins. I’m feeling the magic! The question in my head is: will Montreal follow the “canadian team forcing game 7 in the finals and lose” pattern, or will they follow the 1993 pattern of having the stars align and pulling out a win? At any rate, the predictor now has a record of 7/12  (same as last year at this time). So what does it think of the next round?

Philadelphia_Flyers   0.576 0.180
Montreal_Canadiens    0.424 0.106

San_Jose_Sharks       0.441 0.303
Chicago_Blackhawks    0.559 0.411

The flyers are the favourite agains the Habs, but I’ll be rooting for the Canadian club anyways. There’s something special going on there. On the west side, Chicago has a bit of an edge … that should be an excellent series to watch.

Herald

So, umm. That was quite a first round — particularly that first round upset that was the Montreal Canadiens.

I don’t have much time for commentary tonight. It’s late, and I gotta get to bed. But what a topsy turvy scenario the Eastern Conference is in this year. The Pens jumped waaay up in equity after the top three teams in the East were knocked out. Craziness! Here’s how the simulator fared in the first round:

Washington_Capitals  0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291
New_Jersey_Devils    0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071
Buffalo_Sabres       0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058
Pittsburgh_Penguins  0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041
Ottawa_Senators      0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007
Boston_Bruins        0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020
Philadelphia_Flyers  0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020
Montreal_Canadiens   0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008

San_Jose_Sharks      0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110
Chicago_Blackhawks   0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166
Vancouver_Canucks    0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090
Phoenix_Coyotes      0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041
Detroit_Red_Wings    0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023
Los_Angeles_Kings    0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030
Nashville_Predators  0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010
Colorado_Avalanche   0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016

So a bit of a rough (4/8) there. To be fair, that Washington/Montreal series would probably go Washington’s way most times you flip that coin, and the others were much more even coin flips: with the “most likely upsets” from all coming true (Det over Phx, Bos over Buf, and Phi over NJ). So what does the next round hold? Well my sim results look like this:

Pittsburgh_Penguins   0.611 0.332 0.122
Boston_Bruins         0.482 0.236 0.078
Philadelphia_Flyers   0.518 0.263 0.089
Montreal_Canadiens    0.389 0.169 0.046

San_Jose_Sharks       0.648 0.304 0.202
Chicago_Blackhawks    0.561 0.341 0.243
Vancouver_Canucks     0.439 0.242 0.161
Detroit_Red_Wings     0.352 0.114 0.059

The Penguin’s probability of winning the cup jumped over 8%. Chicago is the sim’s favourite though despite the tougher Western conference matchups. Pittsburgh should have a much easier time getting to the finals — but what happens when they get there is a question.

Anyways, I gotta get to bed. Enjoy the next round of the playoffs!

Heraldk

For previous years, check out: 08/09, and 07/08.

So the simulator likes the Capitals at a hefty 29.1%. Not as big a favourite as previous years (Detroit at 33% in 2008 and Boston at 30.8% in 2009). Despite the Sharks winning the Western conference this year, the Blackhawks are favoured higher by more than 5%. Considering that the Sharks struggled down the stretch and relied on a few extra OT “Bettman Points” to clinch the division (the Hawks actually had *more* wins). Vancouver is the next favourite coming in at 9%.

The most likely “upsets” in the first round are Detroit over Phoenix (45.1%), Boston over Buffalo (40.7%), and Philadelphia over New Jersey (40.1%).

The Canadian teams in the East drew tough first round matches against Washington and Pittsburgh, and as a result their overall chance of winning the cup are hurt tremendously.

Washington_Capitals  0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291
New_Jersey_Devils    0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071
Buffalo_Sabres       0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058
Pittsburgh_Penguins  0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041
Ottawa_Senators      0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007
Boston_Bruins        0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020
Philadelphia_Flyers  0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020
Montreal_Canadiens   0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008

San_Jose_Sharks      0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110
Chicago_Blackhawks   0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166
Vancouver_Canucks    0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090
Phoenix_Coyotes      0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041
Detroit_Red_Wings    0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023
Los_Angeles_Kings    0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030
Nashville_Predators  0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010
Colorado_Avalanche   0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016

I’ll be running the simulator for each round of the playoffs again this year. More comments to come, but I gotta get my picks ready for the couple of playoff pools I’m in this year.

Heraldk

Edit: thanks Darse for pointing out that Philly doesn’t play Pittsburgh. Fixed!