Sports
NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10 Round 4
May 25th
Alas, the Montreal Canadiens couldn’t keep the magic alive. So instead, it is the seventh seed Flyers that make it to the cup final against the Chicago Blackhawks. The Hawks looked mighty strong against a strong Sharks team, and there’s probably no surprise which of the Hawks and Flyers it likes better. But first, here’s a review of the last round:
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.576 0.180
Montreal_Canadiens 0.424 0.106
San_Jose_Sharks 0.441 0.303
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.559 0.411
The predictor goes 2/2 this round making it 9/14 overall. Not a bad recovery after a topsy turvy first round!
The Stanley cup final starts on Saturday, and unfortunately for me, the games all start late — probably too late for me to watch any of them live. Oh wells. At any rate, here’s what the predictor says about the final:
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.287
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.713
No surprise, really. It might be an exciting series though…
Heraldk
NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10 Round 3
May 15th
What a crazy year for the NHL playoffs. The teams that make the semifinals? Seeds 1 and 2 in the west, and seeds 7 and 8 in the east! Yeesh.
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.611 0.332 0.122
Boston_Bruins 0.482 0.236 0.078
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.518 0.263 0.089
Montreal_Canadiens 0.389 0.169 0.046
San_Jose_Sharks 0.648 0.304 0.202
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.561 0.341 0.243
Vancouver_Canucks 0.439 0.242 0.161
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.352 0.114 0.059
So the predictor did a good job, going 3/4 this time around. The exception was Montreal’s 7 game masterpiece against the Pittsburgh Penguins. I’m feeling the magic! The question in my head is: will Montreal follow the “canadian team forcing game 7 in the finals and lose” pattern, or will they follow the 1993 pattern of having the stars align and pulling out a win? At any rate, the predictor now has a record of 7/12 (same as last year at this time). So what does it think of the next round?
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.576 0.180
Montreal_Canadiens 0.424 0.106
San_Jose_Sharks 0.441 0.303
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.559 0.411
The flyers are the favourite agains the Habs, but I’ll be rooting for the Canadian club anyways. There’s something special going on there. On the west side, Chicago has a bit of an edge … that should be an excellent series to watch.
Herald
NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10 Round 2
Apr 29th
So, umm. That was quite a first round — particularly that first round upset that was the Montreal Canadiens.
I don’t have much time for commentary tonight. It’s late, and I gotta get to bed. But what a topsy turvy scenario the Eastern Conference is in this year. The Pens jumped waaay up in equity after the top three teams in the East were knocked out. Craziness! Here’s how the simulator fared in the first round:
Washington_Capitals 0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291
New_Jersey_Devils 0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071
Buffalo_Sabres 0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041
Ottawa_Senators 0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007
Boston_Bruins 0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020
Montreal_Canadiens 0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008
San_Jose_Sharks 0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166
Vancouver_Canucks 0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090
Phoenix_Coyotes 0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023
Los_Angeles_Kings 0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030
Nashville_Predators 0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010
Colorado_Avalanche 0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016
So a bit of a rough (4/8) there. To be fair, that Washington/Montreal series would probably go Washington’s way most times you flip that coin, and the others were much more even coin flips: with the “most likely upsets” from all coming true (Det over Phx, Bos over Buf, and Phi over NJ). So what does the next round hold? Well my sim results look like this:
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.611 0.332 0.122
Boston_Bruins 0.482 0.236 0.078
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.518 0.263 0.089
Montreal_Canadiens 0.389 0.169 0.046
San_Jose_Sharks 0.648 0.304 0.202
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.561 0.341 0.243
Vancouver_Canucks 0.439 0.242 0.161
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.352 0.114 0.059
The Penguin’s probability of winning the cup jumped over 8%. Chicago is the sim’s favourite though despite the tougher Western conference matchups. Pittsburgh should have a much easier time getting to the finals — but what happens when they get there is a question.
Anyways, I gotta get to bed. Enjoy the next round of the playoffs!
Heraldk
NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10
Apr 13th
For previous years, check out: 08/09, and 07/08.
So the simulator likes the Capitals at a hefty 29.1%. Not as big a favourite as previous years (Detroit at 33% in 2008 and Boston at 30.8% in 2009). Despite the Sharks winning the Western conference this year, the Blackhawks are favoured higher by more than 5%. Considering that the Sharks struggled down the stretch and relied on a few extra OT “Bettman Points” to clinch the division (the Hawks actually had *more* wins). Vancouver is the next favourite coming in at 9%.
The most likely “upsets” in the first round are Detroit over Phoenix (45.1%), Boston over Buffalo (40.7%), and Philadelphia over New Jersey (40.1%).
The Canadian teams in the East drew tough first round matches against Washington and Pittsburgh, and as a result their overall chance of winning the cup are hurt tremendously.
Washington_Capitals 0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291
New_Jersey_Devils 0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071
Buffalo_Sabres 0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041
Ottawa_Senators 0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007
Boston_Bruins 0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020
Montreal_Canadiens 0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008
San_Jose_Sharks 0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166
Vancouver_Canucks 0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090
Phoenix_Coyotes 0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023
Los_Angeles_Kings 0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030
Nashville_Predators 0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010
Colorado_Avalanche 0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016
I’ll be running the simulator for each round of the playoffs again this year. More comments to come, but I gotta get my picks ready for the couple of playoff pools I’m in this year.
Heraldk
Edit: thanks Darse for pointing out that Philly doesn’t play Pittsburgh. Fixed!
NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 4
May 30th
Alright, one more go for the predictor!
1 for 2 on the conference finals... Pittsburgh, as expected, took it down, and the Hawks really didn't give the wings any trouble -- despite several games going to overtime. It didn't look to me like the Hawks had a shot at all in the games that I did watch. Oh well, guess I can't get 'em all right. The predictor is sitting at 8/14 with one series to go. How does the last round stack up? It's really hard not to bet on the Wings. They've been so dominant for so long. But the penguins are going to give them a harder time than last year, I expect. It should be a great series, at any rate! Herald
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.547 0.214
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.453 0.158
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.488 0.305
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.512 0.322
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.396
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.604
NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 3
May 16th
Well that last round didn’t go to plan …
Here’s the results:
Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388
Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164
Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159
Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035
The Hurricanes play spoiler to the Bruins which makes my program off there. Not too sure how many people picked the ‘Canes over the Bruins, but I don’t think there were many. The Caps/Pens played an incredible series to 7 games, and it was as close as I (and my program) expected. Out west though, the program did much better with both the Red Wings and Blackhawks making it through as predicted. With this round done, giving us a 7/12 record. A couple of too close to call series, and the ‘Canes pulling off a pair of upsets are a quick way to explain what happened so far this year.
What’s up for the next round? The teams are quite evenly matched, but there’s a bit of surprise pick for the west.
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.547 0.214
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.453 0.158
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.488 0.305
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.512 0.322
That’s right, the program likes the Hawks. This was the reason I went with the hawks and bruins in my playoff pools … but thanks to the ‘Canes, I now have no shot to win those.
Herald
NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 2
Apr 30th
Alright, the first round of the playoffs is in the books, so lets review how the predictor did, shall we?
Boston_Bruins 0.814 0.634 0.458 0.308
Washington_Capitals 0.649 0.321 0.117 0.051
New_Jersey_Devils 0.603 0.339 0.143 0.070
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.495 0.209 0.084 0.036
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.505 0.216 0.087 0.038
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.397 0.136 0.055 0.021
New_York_Rangers 0.351 0.073 0.027 0.008
Montreal_Canadiens 0.186 0.071 0.029 0.010
San_Jose_Sharks 0.706 0.474 0.276 0.145
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.720 0.435 0.227 0.110
Vancouver_Canucks 0.617 0.276 0.121 0.049
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.688 0.390 0.217 0.107
Calgary_Flames 0.312 0.118 0.044 0.014
St_Louis_Blues 0.383 0.124 0.042 0.012
Columbus_Blue_Jackets 0.280 0.083 0.031 0.009
Anaheim_Ducks 0.294 0.101 0.043 0.014
In summary, the predictor didn’t do a bad job, but it did get 3 series wrong giving it a 5/8 record starting off this playoffs. The biggest upset was Anaheim over San Jose — a series that San Jose apparently didn’t even show up for. Besides that, the other two series that the predictor got wrong were really close. Carolina managed to hit runner-runner to win their series by forcing a game 7, and then scoring two goals to tie and go ahead late in the 3rd period. Thanks for screwing up my playoff pools, Carolina! The other series, my predictor had Pittsburgh and Philly only a few percentage points apart, and so I’m not really that concerned that it picked the wrong side there.
Looking ahead, here’s the output for the next round:
Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388
Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164
Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159
Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035
Boston has a huge edge going against Carolina, and Detroit has a similar edge against the ducks. But the other matchups are *much* closer. The program gives the slight edge to the Caps, but given how much trouble the Caps had with the Rangers, I wouldn’t totally be surprised to see the Penguins move on. The Canucks/Blackhawks series isn’t quite that close, and Chicago is certainly looking like a good option.
Herald
NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09
Apr 13th
The NHL season is over for another year. Alas, my Oilers didn’t make it, but it still is a fun time to run the playoff predictor for another season. Here’s the numbers for the various teams. For an explanation, see here.
Boston_Bruins 0.814 0.634 0.458 0.308
Washington_Capitals 0.649 0.321 0.117 0.051
New_Jersey_Devils 0.603 0.339 0.143 0.070
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.495 0.209 0.084 0.036
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.505 0.216 0.087 0.038
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.397 0.136 0.055 0.021
New_York_Rangers 0.351 0.073 0.027 0.008
Montreal_Canadiens 0.186 0.071 0.029 0.010
San_Jose_Sharks 0.706 0.474 0.276 0.145
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.720 0.435 0.227 0.110
Vancouver_Canucks 0.617 0.276 0.121 0.049
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.688 0.390 0.217 0.107
Calgary_Flames 0.312 0.118 0.044 0.014
St_Louis_Blues 0.383 0.124 0.042 0.012
Columbus_Blue_Jackets 0.280 0.083 0.031 0.009
Anaheim_Ducks 0.294 0.101 0.043 0.014
Playoff Predictor, Stanley Cup Finals, 2008
May 23rd
Well my predictor is sure doing better than I did in my playoff pools. Going into the conference finals, it was 11 for 12 for predictions, and it got both of the conference finals right as well!
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars 0.319 0.178
So what’s left? The Stanley cup finals start tomorrow night and it should be a great series. So I gave my predictor one final spin to see what it says. It should come as no surprise that Detroit is heavily favoured by the program:
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.295
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.705
While I’d be happy to say my program went 14/15, I’m still kinda rooting for the penguins. They are an exciting team to watch with a hell of a lot of talent at a very young age. Whoever wins though, the series should be one for the ages.
Heraldk
Playoff Predictor, Round 3 2008
May 5th
Well the second round of the playoffs is over, and it’s time to give my simulator another spin. First, let’s look at the results from Round 2:
Montreal_Canadiens 0.616 0.348 0.147 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.772 0.530 0.380
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056 Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114 San_Jose_Sharks 0.483 0.180 0.094
New_York_Rangers 0.432 0.189 0.064 Dallas_Stars 0.517 0.199 0.107
The simulator goes 3 for 4 this round with the only one not going its way being the Montreal-Philly series. Overall, the simulator’s predictions have been 11 for 12. Not too shabby huh?
Here are the predictions of my simulator for the conference finals:
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars 0.319 0.178
So according to the program, Detroit has just shy of a 50% chance to win the whole thing, and their likely opponents is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Dallas and Pittsburgh are very close for 2nd place and Philly is not liked as much by the program.
See Round 2 and Round 1 for more information.
Heraldk
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