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NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 4

Heraldk — Sat, 28 May 2011 09:34:17 +0000

Well that was a fun round. Dwayne Roloson and the Tampa Bay Lightning very nearly toppled Boston. It was a pretty sick run for that team. Vancouver kind of waltzed past the San Jose, although it was a pretty hard fought series. Here’s how the predictor did for this round:

Boston_Bruins 0.718 0.315 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066

Vancouver_Canucks 0.707 0.480 San_Jose_Sharks 0.293 0.139

The predictor goes 2/2 this round, for an overall record of 11/14.

Boston_Bruins 0.377 Vancouver_Canucks 0.623

The predictor likes Vancouver, and I wouldn’t mind seeing the cup come back to Canada. As an Oiler fan it is a bit painful to see the Canucks succeed … but I guess I couldn’t begrudge them winning their first cup. I’m a bit conflicted though — I entered a playoff pool and have in that Boston to beat Vancouver. If that happens, I win the 126 entrant for-bragging-rights pool. So I guess the series is win-win for me. I’m looking forward to watching the matches from Canada!

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 3

Heraldk — Fri, 13 May 2011 07:46:10 +0000

Well the 2nd round was almost totally lame compared to the first round as many of the series looked like they were going to be short one-sided affairs. But the Western matchups were made into series as both Nashville and Detroit put up good fights before finally bowing out. Here’s a look at how the predictor did for this round:

Washington_Capitals 0.610 0.260 0.100 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.407 0.232 0.093 Boston_Bruins 0.593 0.386 0.188 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.390 0.123 0.034

Vancouver_Canucks 0.726 0.535 0.371 San_Jose_Sharks 0.585 0.210 0.103 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.415 0.118 0.048 Nashville_Predators 0.274 0.137 0.063

3/4 is a pretty good record, with the only miss being Tampa Bay. The predictor goes 9 for 12 overall so far. San Jose nearly coughed up a 3-0 series lead but held on, but really the story was Dwayne Roloson’s continued playoff excellence. That guy is 40 years old and playing absolutely briliantly!

What’s up for the next round? Well:

Boston_Bruins 0.718 0.315 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066

Vancouver_Canucks 0.707 0.480 San_Jose_Sharks 0.293 0.139

Vancouver and Boston are heavy favourites to meet in the stanely cup finals. But you never know — both the lightning and the sharks have strong teams and the matchups will be very interesting.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 2

Heraldk — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 07:40:33 +0000

The NHL seems to have a quicker turnaround this year between the first and second rounds, so I’m trying to get this post out in a hurry. The first round of the playoffs was about as exciting a round as I think I can remember. Several multi-goal deficits were erased, lots of OT, lots of game 7s… makes me wish I could’ve watched more of the games than I got to.

Here’s a quick recap of the first round:

Washington_Capitals 0.464 0.252 0.114 0.048 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.594 0.277 0.139 0.061 Boston_Bruins 0.703 0.421 0.257 0.136 Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.664 0.355 0.189 0.089 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.336 0.125 0.046 0.014 Montreal_Canadiens 0.297 0.123 0.047 0.016 Buffalo_Sabres 0.406 0.184 0.070 0.025 New_York_Rangers 0.536 0.263 0.139 0.063

Vancouver_Canucks 0.725 0.557 0.418 0.290 San_Jose_Sharks 0.555 0.313 0.130 0.064 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.566 0.259 0.086 0.035 Anaheim_Ducks 0.387 0.142 0.042 0.015 Nashville_Predators 0.613 0.293 0.119 0.055 Phoenix_Coyotes 0.434 0.145 0.047 0.017 Los_Angeles_Kings 0.445 0.150 0.077 0.034 Chicago_Blackhawks 0.275 0.143 0.081 0.038

The predictor goes 6 for 8 this year in the first round – losing on the NYR and PIT bets. The Penguins suffered the loss of Malkin and Crosby which they couldn’t really recover from (tough to lose those guys), but they made it a series. The rangers put up a good fight but couldn’t hold onto a couple of leads that should probably be games they win.
I was rooting for the Habs to upset the bruins, but that didn’t happen … and the Canucks managed to almost lose their series after taking a 3-0 lead.

So what do we have for the next round?

Washington_Capitals 0.610 0.260 0.100 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.407 0.232 0.093 Boston_Bruins 0.593 0.386 0.188 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.390 0.123 0.034

Vancouver_Canucks 0.726 0.535 0.371 San_Jose_Sharks 0.585 0.210 0.103 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.415 0.118 0.048 Nashville_Predators 0.274 0.137 0.063

The Bruins are still favourites out of the East to win the cup, but they’ve got a tough match ahead against the flyers. Meanwhile the Capitals have the edge on the lightning by a fair margin. In the West, the Canucks are heavy favourites again, but their success will depend on how they respond to the almost-first-round-collapse against the Hawks. Definitely Chicago was a tough first round draw though, and they have a very deep team so they should be up for it. San Jose has the edge against Detroit, but that series could probably go either way. It’s tough to bet against the wings. Probably the series to watch this round.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011

Heraldk — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 08:03:23 +0000

For previous years see 2008, 2009, 2010

I don’t think it should be a surprise to anyone that Vancouver is heavily favoured to win the cup this year. A couple of interesting notes:

Boston is the favourite out of the east this year, according to the simulator, despite sitting in 3rd in the East. This comes out of a having one of the best goals for/goals against ratios in the conference. They also benefit from a first round match against the Canadiens who have a low goals for total for the year.

Pittsburgh also surprises as being a second favourite in the East — also benefitting from a favourable first round matchup against the Lightning who have a very high goals against total for the year.

The West is a lot more ordinary in the ranking, with the favs being Vancouver, San Jose, and Detroit.

Looking forward to more playoff hockey! Let’s go!

NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10 Round 4

Heraldk — Tue, 25 May 2010 07:35:21 +0000

Alas, the Montreal Canadiens couldn’t keep the magic alive. So instead, it is the seventh seed Flyers that make it to the cup final against the Chicago Blackhawks. The Hawks looked mighty strong against a strong Sharks team, and there’s probably no surprise which of the Hawks and Flyers it likes better. But first, here’s a review of the last round:

Philadelphia_Flyers 0.576 0.180 Montreal_Canadiens 0.424 0.106

San_Jose_Sharks 0.441 0.303 Chicago_Blackhawks 0.559 0.411

The predictor goes 2/2 this round making it 9/14 overall. Not a bad recovery after a topsy turvy first round!

The Stanley cup final starts on Saturday, and unfortunately for me, the games all start late — probably too late for me to watch any of them live. Oh wells. At any rate, here’s what the predictor says about the final:

Philadelphia_Flyers 0.287 Chicago_Blackhawks 0.713

No surprise, really. It might be an exciting series though…

Heraldk

NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10 Round 3

Heraldk — Sat, 15 May 2010 16:27:50 +0000

What a crazy year for the NHL playoffs. The teams that make the semifinals? Seeds 1 and 2 in the west, and seeds 7 and 8 in the east! Yeesh.

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.611 0.332 0.122 Boston_Bruins 0.482 0.236 0.078 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.518 0.263 0.089 Montreal_Canadiens 0.389 0.169 0.046

San_Jose_Sharks 0.648 0.304 0.202 Chicago_Blackhawks 0.561 0.341 0.243 Vancouver_Canucks 0.439 0.242 0.161 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.352 0.114 0.059

So the predictor did a good job, going 3/4 this time around. The exception was Montreal’s 7 game masterpiece against the Pittsburgh Penguins. I’m feeling the magic! The question in my head is: will Montreal follow the “canadian team forcing game 7 in the finals and lose” pattern, or will they follow the 1993 pattern of having the stars align and pulling out a win? At any rate, the predictor now has a record of 7/12 (same as last year at this time). So what does it think of the next round?

Philadelphia_Flyers 0.576 0.180 Montreal_Canadiens 0.424 0.106

San_Jose_Sharks 0.441 0.303 Chicago_Blackhawks 0.559 0.411

The flyers are the favourite agains the Habs, but I’ll be rooting for the Canadian club anyways. There’s something special going on there. On the west side, Chicago has a bit of an edge … that should be an excellent series to watch.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10 Round 2

Heraldk — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 00:32:53 +0000

So, umm. That was quite a first round — particularly that first round upset that was the Montreal Canadiens.

I don’t have much time for commentary tonight. It’s late, and I gotta get to bed. But what a topsy turvy scenario the Eastern Conference is in this year. The Pens jumped waaay up in equity after the top three teams in the East were knocked out. Craziness! Here’s how the simulator fared in the first round:

Washington_Capitals 0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291 New_Jersey_Devils 0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071 Buffalo_Sabres 0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058 Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041 Ottawa_Senators 0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007 Boston_Bruins 0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020 Montreal_Canadiens 0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008San_Jose_Sharks 0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110 Chicago_Blackhawks 0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166 Vancouver_Canucks 0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090 Phoenix_Coyotes 0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023 Los_Angeles_Kings 0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030 Nashville_Predators 0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010 Colorado_Avalanche 0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016

So a bit of a rough (4/8) there. To be fair, that Washington/Montreal series would probably go Washington’s way most times you flip that coin, and the others were much more even coin flips: with the “most likely upsets” from all coming true (Det over Phx, Bos over Buf, and Phi over NJ). So what does the next round hold? Well my sim results look like this:

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.611 0.332 0.122 Boston_Bruins 0.482 0.236 0.078 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.518 0.263 0.089 Montreal_Canadiens 0.389 0.169 0.046

San_Jose_Sharks 0.648 0.304 0.202 Chicago_Blackhawks 0.561 0.341 0.243 Vancouver_Canucks 0.439 0.242 0.161 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.352 0.114 0.059

The Penguin’s probability of winning the cup jumped over 8%. Chicago is the sim’s favourite though despite the tougher Western conference matchups. Pittsburgh should have a much easier time getting to the finals — but what happens when they get there is a question.

Anyways, I gotta get to bed. Enjoy the next round of the playoffs!

Heraldk

NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10

Heraldk — Tue, 13 Apr 2010 21:54:02 +0000

For previous years, check out: 08/09, and 07/08.

So the simulator likes the Capitals at a hefty 29.1%. Not as big a favourite as previous years (Detroit at 33% in 2008 and Boston at 30.8% in 2009). Despite the Sharks winning the Western conference this year, the Blackhawks are favoured higher by more than 5%. Considering that the Sharks struggled down the stretch and relied on a few extra OT “Bettman Points” to clinch the division (the Hawks actually had *more* wins). Vancouver is the next favourite coming in at 9%.

The most likely “upsets” in the first round are Detroit over Phoenix (45.1%), Boston over Buffalo (40.7%), and Philadelphia over New Jersey (40.1%).

The Canadian teams in the East drew tough first round matches against Washington and Pittsburgh, and as a result their overall chance of winning the cup are hurt tremendously.

Washington_Capitals 0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291 New_Jersey_Devils 0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071 Buffalo_Sabres 0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058 Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041 Ottawa_Senators 0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007 Boston_Bruins 0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020 Montreal_Canadiens 0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008 San_Jose_Sharks 0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110 Chicago_Blackhawks 0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166 Vancouver_Canucks 0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090 Phoenix_Coyotes 0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023 Los_Angeles_Kings 0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030 Nashville_Predators 0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010 Colorado_Avalanche 0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016

I’ll be running the simulator for each round of the playoffs again this year. More comments to come, but I gotta get my picks ready for the couple of playoff pools I’m in this year.

Heraldk

Edit: thanks Darse for pointing out that Philly doesn’t play Pittsburgh. Fixed!

NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 4

Heraldk — Sat, 30 May 2009 13:12:34 +0000

Alright, one more go for the predictor!

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.547 0.214 Carolina_Hurricanes 0.453 0.158

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.488 0.305 Chicago_Blackhawks 0.512 0.322


1 for 2 on the conference finals... Pittsburgh, as expected, took it down, and the Hawks really didn't give the wings any trouble -- despite several games going to overtime. It didn't look to me like the Hawks had a shot at all in the games that I did watch. Oh well, guess I can't get 'em all right. The predictor is sitting at 8/14 with one series to go. How does the last round stack up?


Pittsburgh_Penguins     0.396

Detroit_Red_Wings       0.604


It's really hard not to bet on the Wings. They've been so dominant for so long. But the penguins are going to give them a harder time than last year, I expect. It should be a great series, at any rate!
Herald



NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 3
Heraldk — Sat, 16 May 2009 22:24:27 +0000
Well that last round didn’t go to plan …
Here’s the results:



Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388

Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070

Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040




Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164

Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073

Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159

Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035


The Hurricanes play spoiler to the Bruins which makes my program off there. Not too sure how many people picked the ‘Canes over the Bruins, but I don’t think there were many. The Caps/Pens played an incredible series to 7 games, and it was as close as I (and my program) expected. Out west though, the program did much better with both the Red Wings and Blackhawks making it through as predicted. With this round done, giving us a 7/12 record. A couple of too close to call series, and the ‘Canes pulling off a pair of upsets are a quick way to explain what happened so far this year.
What’s up for the next round? The teams are quite evenly matched, but there’s a bit of surprise pick for the west.


Pittsburgh_Penguins     0.547 0.214

Carolina_Hurricanes     0.453 0.158





Detroit_Red_Wings       0.488 0.305

Chicago_Blackhawks      0.512 0.322


That’s right, the program likes the Hawks. This was the reason I went with the hawks and bruins in my playoff pools … but thanks to the ‘Canes, I now have no shot to win those.
Herald