Sports
NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10
Apr 13th
For previous years, check out: 08/09, and 07/08.
So the simulator likes the Capitals at a hefty 29.1%. Not as big a favourite as previous years (Detroit at 33% in 2008 and Boston at 30.8% in 2009). Despite the Sharks winning the Western conference this year, the Blackhawks are favoured higher by more than 5%. Considering that the Sharks struggled down the stretch and relied on a few extra OT “Bettman Points” to clinch the division (the Hawks actually had *more* wins). Vancouver is the next favourite coming in at 9%.
The most likely “upsets” in the first round are Detroit over Phoenix (45.1%), Boston over Buffalo (40.7%), and Philadelphia over New Jersey (40.1%).
The Canadian teams in the East drew tough first round matches against Washington and Pittsburgh, and as a result their overall chance of winning the cup are hurt tremendously.
Washington_Capitals 0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291
New_Jersey_Devils 0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071
Buffalo_Sabres 0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041
Ottawa_Senators 0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007
Boston_Bruins 0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020
Montreal_Canadiens 0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008
San_Jose_Sharks 0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166
Vancouver_Canucks 0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090
Phoenix_Coyotes 0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023
Los_Angeles_Kings 0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030
Nashville_Predators 0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010
Colorado_Avalanche 0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016
I’ll be running the simulator for each round of the playoffs again this year. More comments to come, but I gotta get my picks ready for the couple of playoff pools I’m in this year.
Heraldk
Edit: thanks Darse for pointing out that Philly doesn’t play Pittsburgh. Fixed!
NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 4
May 30th
Alright, one more go for the predictor!
1 for 2 on the conference finals... Pittsburgh, as expected, took it down, and the Hawks really didn't give the wings any trouble -- despite several games going to overtime. It didn't look to me like the Hawks had a shot at all in the games that I did watch. Oh well, guess I can't get 'em all right. The predictor is sitting at 8/14 with one series to go. How does the last round stack up? It's really hard not to bet on the Wings. They've been so dominant for so long. But the penguins are going to give them a harder time than last year, I expect. It should be a great series, at any rate! Herald
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.547 0.214
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.453 0.158
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.488 0.305
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.512 0.322
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.396
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.604
NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 3
May 16th
Well that last round didn’t go to plan …
Here’s the results:
Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388
Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164
Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159
Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035
The Hurricanes play spoiler to the Bruins which makes my program off there. Not too sure how many people picked the ‘Canes over the Bruins, but I don’t think there were many. The Caps/Pens played an incredible series to 7 games, and it was as close as I (and my program) expected. Out west though, the program did much better with both the Red Wings and Blackhawks making it through as predicted. With this round done, giving us a 7/12 record. A couple of too close to call series, and the ‘Canes pulling off a pair of upsets are a quick way to explain what happened so far this year.
What’s up for the next round? The teams are quite evenly matched, but there’s a bit of surprise pick for the west.
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.547 0.214
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.453 0.158
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.488 0.305
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.512 0.322
That’s right, the program likes the Hawks. This was the reason I went with the hawks and bruins in my playoff pools … but thanks to the ‘Canes, I now have no shot to win those.
Herald
NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 2
Apr 30th
Alright, the first round of the playoffs is in the books, so lets review how the predictor did, shall we?
Boston_Bruins 0.814 0.634 0.458 0.308
Washington_Capitals 0.649 0.321 0.117 0.051
New_Jersey_Devils 0.603 0.339 0.143 0.070
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.495 0.209 0.084 0.036
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.505 0.216 0.087 0.038
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.397 0.136 0.055 0.021
New_York_Rangers 0.351 0.073 0.027 0.008
Montreal_Canadiens 0.186 0.071 0.029 0.010
San_Jose_Sharks 0.706 0.474 0.276 0.145
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.720 0.435 0.227 0.110
Vancouver_Canucks 0.617 0.276 0.121 0.049
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.688 0.390 0.217 0.107
Calgary_Flames 0.312 0.118 0.044 0.014
St_Louis_Blues 0.383 0.124 0.042 0.012
Columbus_Blue_Jackets 0.280 0.083 0.031 0.009
Anaheim_Ducks 0.294 0.101 0.043 0.014
In summary, the predictor didn’t do a bad job, but it did get 3 series wrong giving it a 5/8 record starting off this playoffs. The biggest upset was Anaheim over San Jose — a series that San Jose apparently didn’t even show up for. Besides that, the other two series that the predictor got wrong were really close. Carolina managed to hit runner-runner to win their series by forcing a game 7, and then scoring two goals to tie and go ahead late in the 3rd period. Thanks for screwing up my playoff pools, Carolina! The other series, my predictor had Pittsburgh and Philly only a few percentage points apart, and so I’m not really that concerned that it picked the wrong side there.
Looking ahead, here’s the output for the next round:
Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388
Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164
Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159
Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035
Boston has a huge edge going against Carolina, and Detroit has a similar edge against the ducks. But the other matchups are *much* closer. The program gives the slight edge to the Caps, but given how much trouble the Caps had with the Rangers, I wouldn’t totally be surprised to see the Penguins move on. The Canucks/Blackhawks series isn’t quite that close, and Chicago is certainly looking like a good option.
Herald
NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09
Apr 13th
The NHL season is over for another year. Alas, my Oilers didn’t make it, but it still is a fun time to run the playoff predictor for another season. Here’s the numbers for the various teams. For an explanation, see here.
Boston_Bruins 0.814 0.634 0.458 0.308
Washington_Capitals 0.649 0.321 0.117 0.051
New_Jersey_Devils 0.603 0.339 0.143 0.070
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.495 0.209 0.084 0.036
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.505 0.216 0.087 0.038
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.397 0.136 0.055 0.021
New_York_Rangers 0.351 0.073 0.027 0.008
Montreal_Canadiens 0.186 0.071 0.029 0.010
San_Jose_Sharks 0.706 0.474 0.276 0.145
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.720 0.435 0.227 0.110
Vancouver_Canucks 0.617 0.276 0.121 0.049
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.688 0.390 0.217 0.107
Calgary_Flames 0.312 0.118 0.044 0.014
St_Louis_Blues 0.383 0.124 0.042 0.012
Columbus_Blue_Jackets 0.280 0.083 0.031 0.009
Anaheim_Ducks 0.294 0.101 0.043 0.014
Playoff Predictor, Stanley Cup Finals, 2008
May 23rd
Well my predictor is sure doing better than I did in my playoff pools. Going into the conference finals, it was 11 for 12 for predictions, and it got both of the conference finals right as well!
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars 0.319 0.178
So what’s left? The Stanley cup finals start tomorrow night and it should be a great series. So I gave my predictor one final spin to see what it says. It should come as no surprise that Detroit is heavily favoured by the program:
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.295
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.705
While I’d be happy to say my program went 14/15, I’m still kinda rooting for the penguins. They are an exciting team to watch with a hell of a lot of talent at a very young age. Whoever wins though, the series should be one for the ages.
Heraldk
Playoff Predictor, Round 3 2008
May 5th
Well the second round of the playoffs is over, and it’s time to give my simulator another spin. First, let’s look at the results from Round 2:
Montreal_Canadiens 0.616 0.348 0.147 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.772 0.530 0.380
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056 Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114 San_Jose_Sharks 0.483 0.180 0.094
New_York_Rangers 0.432 0.189 0.064 Dallas_Stars 0.517 0.199 0.107
The simulator goes 3 for 4 this round with the only one not going its way being the Montreal-Philly series. Overall, the simulator’s predictions have been 11 for 12. Not too shabby huh?
Here are the predictions of my simulator for the conference finals:
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars 0.319 0.178
So according to the program, Detroit has just shy of a 50% chance to win the whole thing, and their likely opponents is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Dallas and Pittsburgh are very close for 2nd place and Philly is not liked as much by the program.
See Round 2 and Round 1 for more information.
Heraldk
Playoff Predictions, Round 2, 2008
Apr 23rd
I posted before the first round playoffs started to present some output from my NHL playoff simulator.
How’d it do at predicting the results? Well let’s have a look. I removed the later round predictions from the last post just to clean this up and make it easier to read. Correct predictions are in bold.
Montreal_Canadiens 0.720 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.811
Boston_Bruins 0.280 Nashville_Predators 0.189
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590 San_Jose_Sharks 0.634
Ottawa_Senators 0.410 Calgary_Flames 0.366
Washington_Capitals 0.481 Minnesota_Wild 0.468
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519 Colorado_Avalanche 0.532
New_Jersey_Devils 0.477 Anaheim_Ducks 0.414
New_York_Rangers 0.523 Dallas_Stars 0.586
Not bad huh? In every case, the favourite team of each match was the one that won. Three of the series went right down to the wire though, and I honestly thought Washington was going to beat Philly in game 7. They were a feel good story this year, along with the Oilers late season push to the playoffs that fell *just* short. San Jose and Montreal almost choked in the first round on series leads, but managed to pull through in the end.
So what does the simulator say for the next round? Once again the first column is the probability of winning that round. The second column is the probability of winning the conference final, and the third column is the probability of taking home the cup. This run is one million playoff simulations seeded with the results of the first playoff round.
Montreal_Canadiens 0.616 0.348 0.147
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114
New_York_Rangers 0.432 0.189 0.064
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.772 0.530 0.380
San_Jose_Sharks 0.483 0.180 0.094
Dallas_Stars 0.517 0.199 0.107
Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039
Detroit, Dallas, Montreal, and Pittsburgh are the favourites according to the simulator. The only selection that is a bit surprising for this round is Dallas – but I’m not too surprised by that considering some of the numbers they put up this year. If they can shut down Thornton, they’ve got a pretty good shot at the conference finals.
Overall Detroit still has the highest probability of winning the cup, up to 38% now. Montreal and Pittsburgh are neck and neck for second place in probability of winning the cup. Dallas and San Jose are next and the last three have a 6% or less chance.
Now that the first round is out, the last remaining Canadian team is my second favourite team in the league: the Montreal Canadiens. So since the Oil are down and out, I’m cheering for them. Push that 14.7% edge boys!
Heraldk
Predicting the NHL Playoffs 07/08
Apr 9th
I’ve become increasingly interested in computer solutions and simulations for domains where you might not expect something can be done. One domain that I’ve been more and more interested in is NHL hockey — a sport that I’m a fan of.
So before the 2007/2008 playoffs started, I decided to write a simulator that figured out how likely it was that each team won the stanley cup based on their regular season statistics. The results are below, with each team’s probability of making it past each round the numbers in the columns. So the Montreal Canadiens have a 72% chance of beating the bruins, and a 12.2% chance of winning the cup.
Montreal_Canadiens 0.720 0.446 0.264 0.122
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590 0.362 0.193 0.083
Washington_Capitals 0.481 0.224 0.097 0.033
New_Jersey_Devils 0.477 0.217 0.096 0.034
New_York_Rangers 0.523 0.250 0.116 0.043
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519 0.236 0.110 0.039
Ottawa_Senators 0.410 0.167 0.086 0.030
Boston_Bruins 0.280 0.098 0.039 0.010
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.811 0.622 0.449 0.330
San_Jose_Sharks 0.634 0.368 0.150 0.082
Minnesota_Wild 0.468 0.187 0.056 0.024
Anaheim_Ducks 0.414 0.182 0.069 0.033
Dallas_Stars 0.586 0.306 0.141 0.079
Colorado_Avalanche 0.532 0.178 0.068 0.031
Calgary_Flames 0.366 0.086 0.037 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.189 0.072 0.030 0.012
What’s startling is Detroit’s enormous 33% chance of winning the whole thing. A couple of other surprises include Dallas’ relatively high probability of winning the cup (7.9%). It’s much higher than the Ducks or Avs which are next to them in the standings.
How does this work? I basically calculate the average goals a team is expected to score against their opposing team by using the season goals-for and goals-against numbers. I use this to simulate games between teams and run entire playoff simulations. The probabilities above are simply the number of times that team reaches the next round divided by the number of simulations.
I don’t have very many features added in that I would like to add. One particular one is a recency statistic that increases the relevance of the last 20 games of the season. I expect that such a statistic will greatly increase San Jose and Washington’s chances of winning the cup and probably dampen Dallas’ chances.
Credit to Darse for giving me some hints and tips on how to create my simulator. Hopefully I’ll get a chance to work on it a bit more so that I can build in some more statistics to help it make a more informed decision.
Heraldk
3-0 Baby!
Jan 31st
I’ve been playing floor hockey with the CS team again this year. This year we’ve got a pretty competitive looking team. Several new additions to the team mean we’ve got some serious firepower on the floor almost every shift, and the players that don’t have that firepower are good solid players. So with last night’s 10-1 win capping off the 3 game round robin, we’re on top of the division for the first time since I joined the team several years ago. Woohoo!
It’s a lot of fun to play and have a shot to win. I haven’t often been on a team that has had a competitive shot to win.
In related news, it looks like I might be able to join a floor hockey team in the Edmonton ball hockey league. I’ve been looking for a league to play in for a long time, so I’m pretty excited about getting a chance to play finally. The short intramural season was just not enough time to play floor hockey each semester.
Heraldk
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