NHL Playoff Predictor 2012 Round 2

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I’m in a rush and can’t write any commentary, but here’s the predictions for the round 2 matchups:

NY_Rangers   0.717 0.416 0.223
Philadelphia 0.546 0.276 0.132
New_Jersey   0.454 0.210 0.092
Washington   0.283 0.098 0.031


St_Louis     0.643 0.410 0.249
Phoenix      0.436 0.168 0.072
Nashville    0.564 0.248 0.122
Los_Angeles  0.357 0.174 0.079

NHL Playoff Predictor 2012

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Greetings once again!

I had grandiose plans of getting a new version of the simulator done in time for the playoffs this year. Oops – looks like the playoffs are going to start before I get there. Damn.

Oh well – for now, here’s the old simulator run for the first round. Maybe I’ll get around to the new version before the end of the playoffs. No guarantees though.


NY Rangers   0.657 0.391 0.180 0.093
Boston       0.807 0.566 0.354 0.218
Florida      0.305 0.056 0.012 0.003
Pittsburgh   0.629 0.374 0.214 0.123
Philadelphia 0.371 0.178 0.080 0.037
New Jersey   0.695 0.282 0.103 0.043
Washington   0.193 0.058 0.019 0.006
Ottawa       0.343 0.096 0.037 0.014


Vancouver    0.641 0.407 0.227 0.118
St Louis     0.650 0.408 0.234 0.124
Phoenix      0.516 0.194 0.074 0.026
Nashville    0.417 0.206 0.094 0.039
Detroit      0.583 0.333 0.179 0.088
Chicago      0.484 0.171 0.061 0.020
San Jose     0.350 0.139 0.064 0.024
Los Angeles  0.359 0.143 0.067 0.025

Some interesting matchups in the first round, with Boston benefitting the most according to goal differential against the Capitals. As a result, the Bruins are relatively heavy favourites to win the cup again – but less so than the predictor predicted for the Canucks last year (21.8% for the Bruins this year compared to 29% for the Canucks last year). Florida, despite getting home ice advantage and 3rd in the East have basically no shot at the cup – being underdogs to the Devils. Phoenix is in a similar position, but the predictor still likes their chances against first round Chicago.

Boston, St Louis, Vancouver, and Pittsburgh are the favourites in this year’s playoffs. I’m looking forward to watching some playoff hockey again!!

Herald

A Night Out

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A Night Out

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 4

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Well that was a fun round. Dwayne Roloson and the Tampa Bay Lightning very nearly toppled Boston. It was a pretty sick run for that team. Vancouver kind of waltzed past the San Jose, although it was a pretty hard fought series. Here’s how the predictor did for this round:


Boston_Bruins       0.718 0.315
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066

Vancouver_Canucks   0.707 0.480
San_Jose_Sharks     0.293 0.139

The predictor goes 2/2 this round, for an overall record of 11/14.

Boston_Bruins           0.377
Vancouver_Canucks       0.623

The predictor likes Vancouver, and I wouldn’t mind seeing the cup come back to Canada. As an Oiler fan it is a bit painful to see the Canucks succeed … but I guess I couldn’t begrudge them winning their first cup. I’m a bit conflicted though — I entered a playoff pool and have in that Boston to beat Vancouver. If that happens, I win the 126 entrant for-bragging-rights pool. So I guess the series is win-win for me. I’m looking forward to watching the matches from Canada!

Herald

Pointy

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Pointy

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 3

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Well the 2nd round was almost totally lame compared to the first round as many of the series looked like they were going to be short one-sided affairs. But the Western matchups were made into series as both Nashville and Detroit put up good fights before finally bowing out. Here’s a look at how the predictor did for this round:

Washington_Capitals 0.610 0.260 0.100
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.407 0.232 0.093
Boston_Bruins       0.593 0.386 0.188
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.390 0.123 0.034

Vancouver_Canucks   0.726 0.535 0.371
San_Jose_Sharks     0.585 0.210 0.103
Detroit_Red_Wings   0.415 0.118 0.048
Nashville_Predators 0.274 0.137 0.063

3/4 is a pretty good record, with the only miss being Tampa Bay.  The predictor goes 9 for 12 overall so far. San Jose nearly coughed up a 3-0 series lead but held on, but really the story was Dwayne Roloson’s continued playoff excellence. That guy is 40 years old and playing absolutely briliantly!

What’s up for the next round? Well:


Boston_Bruins       0.718 0.315
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066


Vancouver_Canucks   0.707 0.480
San_Jose_Sharks     0.293 0.139

Vancouver and Boston are heavy favourites to meet in the stanely cup finals. But you never know — both the lightning and the sharks have strong teams and the matchups will be very interesting.

Herald

Gateshead Millenium Bridge

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Gateshead Millenium Bridge

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 2

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The NHL seems to have a quicker turnaround this year between the first and second rounds, so I’m trying to get this post out in a hurry. The first round of the playoffs was about as exciting a round as I think I can remember. Several multi-goal deficits were erased, lots of OT, lots of game 7s… makes me wish I could’ve watched more of the games than I got to.

Here’s a quick recap of the first round:

Washington_Capitals 0.464 0.252 0.114 0.048
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.594 0.277 0.139 0.061
Boston_Bruins       0.703 0.421 0.257 0.136
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.664 0.355 0.189 0.089
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.336 0.125 0.046 0.014
Montreal_Canadiens  0.297 0.123 0.047 0.016
Buffalo_Sabres      0.406 0.184 0.070 0.025
New_York_Rangers    0.536 0.263 0.139 0.063

Vancouver_Canucks   0.725 0.557 0.418 0.290
San_Jose_Sharks     0.555 0.313 0.130 0.064
Detroit_Red_Wings   0.566 0.259 0.086 0.035
Anaheim_Ducks       0.387 0.142 0.042 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.613 0.293 0.119 0.055
Phoenix_Coyotes     0.434 0.145 0.047 0.017
Los_Angeles_Kings   0.445 0.150 0.077 0.034
Chicago_Blackhawks  0.275 0.143 0.081 0.038

The predictor goes 6 for 8 this year in the first round – losing on the NYR and PIT bets. The Penguins suffered the loss of Malkin and Crosby which they couldn’t really recover from (tough to lose those guys), but they made it a series. The rangers put up a good fight but couldn’t hold onto a couple of leads that should probably be games they win.
I was rooting for the Habs to upset the bruins, but that didn’t happen … and the Canucks managed to almost lose their series after taking a 3-0 lead.

So what do we have for the next round?

Washington_Capitals 0.610 0.260 0.100
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.407 0.232 0.093
Boston_Bruins       0.593 0.386 0.188
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.390 0.123 0.034

Vancouver_Canucks   0.726 0.535 0.371
San_Jose_Sharks     0.585 0.210 0.103
Detroit_Red_Wings   0.415 0.118 0.048
Nashville_Predators 0.274 0.137 0.063

The Bruins are still favourites out of the East to win the cup, but they’ve got a tough match ahead against the flyers. Meanwhile the Capitals have the edge on the lightning by a fair margin. In the West, the Canucks are heavy favourites again, but their success will depend on how they respond to the almost-first-round-collapse against the Hawks. Definitely Chicago was a tough first round draw though, and they have a very deep team so they should be up for it. San Jose has the edge against Detroit, but that series could probably go either way. It’s tough to bet against the wings. Probably the series to watch this round.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011

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For previous years see 2008, 2009, 2010

I don’t think it should be a surprise to anyone that Vancouver is heavily favoured to win the cup this year. A couple of interesting notes:

Boston is the favourite out of the east this year, according to the simulator, despite sitting in 3rd in the East. This comes out of a having one of the best goals for/goals against ratios in the conference. They also benefit from a first round match against the Canadiens who have a low goals for total for the year.

Pittsburgh also surprises as being a second favourite in the East — also benefitting from a favourable first round matchup against the Lightning who have a very high goals against total for the year.

The West is a lot more ordinary in the ranking, with the favs being Vancouver, San Jose, and Detroit.

Washington_Capitals 0.464 0.252 0.114 0.048
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.594 0.277 0.139 0.061
Boston_Bruins       0.703 0.421 0.257 0.136
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.664 0.355 0.189 0.089
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.336 0.125 0.046 0.014
Montreal_Canadiens  0.297 0.123 0.047 0.016
Buffalo_Sabres      0.406 0.184 0.070 0.025
New_York_Rangers    0.536 0.263 0.139 0.063

Vancouver_Canucks   0.725 0.557 0.418 0.290
San_Jose_Sharks     0.555 0.313 0.130 0.064
Detroit_Red_Wings   0.566 0.259 0.086 0.035
Anaheim_Ducks       0.387 0.142 0.042 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.613 0.293 0.119 0.055
Phoenix_Coyotes     0.434 0.145 0.047 0.017
Los_Angeles_Kings   0.445 0.150 0.077 0.034
Chicago_Blackhawks  0.275 0.143 0.081 0.038

Looking forward to more playoff hockey! Let’s go!

Swiss Sunset

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Sunset at Chateau de Chillon

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