Posts tagged playoffs
Playoff Predictor, Stanley Cup Finals, 2008
May 23rd
Well my predictor is sure doing better than I did in my playoff pools. Going into the conference finals, it was 11 for 12 for predictions, and it got both of the conference finals right as well!
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars 0.319 0.178
So what’s left? The Stanley cup finals start tomorrow night and it should be a great series. So I gave my predictor one final spin to see what it says. It should come as no surprise that Detroit is heavily favoured by the program:
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.295
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.705
While I’d be happy to say my program went 14/15, I’m still kinda rooting for the penguins. They are an exciting team to watch with a hell of a lot of talent at a very young age. Whoever wins though, the series should be one for the ages.
Heraldk
Playoff Predictor, Round 3 2008
May 5th
Well the second round of the playoffs is over, and it’s time to give my simulator another spin. First, let’s look at the results from Round 2:
Montreal_Canadiens 0.616 0.348 0.147 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.772 0.530 0.380
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056 Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114 San_Jose_Sharks 0.483 0.180 0.094
New_York_Rangers 0.432 0.189 0.064 Dallas_Stars 0.517 0.199 0.107
The simulator goes 3 for 4 this round with the only one not going its way being the Montreal-Philly series. Overall, the simulator’s predictions have been 11 for 12. Not too shabby huh?
Here are the predictions of my simulator for the conference finals:
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars 0.319 0.178
So according to the program, Detroit has just shy of a 50% chance to win the whole thing, and their likely opponents is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Dallas and Pittsburgh are very close for 2nd place and Philly is not liked as much by the program.
See Round 2 and Round 1 for more information.
Heraldk
Playoff Predictions, Round 2, 2008
Apr 23rd
I posted before the first round playoffs started to present some output from my NHL playoff simulator.
How’d it do at predicting the results? Well let’s have a look. I removed the later round predictions from the last post just to clean this up and make it easier to read. Correct predictions are in bold.
Montreal_Canadiens 0.720 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.811
Boston_Bruins 0.280 Nashville_Predators 0.189
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590 San_Jose_Sharks 0.634
Ottawa_Senators 0.410 Calgary_Flames 0.366
Washington_Capitals 0.481 Minnesota_Wild 0.468
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519 Colorado_Avalanche 0.532
New_Jersey_Devils 0.477 Anaheim_Ducks 0.414
New_York_Rangers 0.523 Dallas_Stars 0.586
Not bad huh? In every case, the favourite team of each match was the one that won. Three of the series went right down to the wire though, and I honestly thought Washington was going to beat Philly in game 7. They were a feel good story this year, along with the Oilers late season push to the playoffs that fell *just* short. San Jose and Montreal almost choked in the first round on series leads, but managed to pull through in the end.
So what does the simulator say for the next round? Once again the first column is the probability of winning that round. The second column is the probability of winning the conference final, and the third column is the probability of taking home the cup. This run is one million playoff simulations seeded with the results of the first playoff round.
Montreal_Canadiens 0.616 0.348 0.147
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114
New_York_Rangers 0.432 0.189 0.064
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.772 0.530 0.380
San_Jose_Sharks 0.483 0.180 0.094
Dallas_Stars 0.517 0.199 0.107
Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039
Detroit, Dallas, Montreal, and Pittsburgh are the favourites according to the simulator. The only selection that is a bit surprising for this round is Dallas – but I’m not too surprised by that considering some of the numbers they put up this year. If they can shut down Thornton, they’ve got a pretty good shot at the conference finals.
Overall Detroit still has the highest probability of winning the cup, up to 38% now. Montreal and Pittsburgh are neck and neck for second place in probability of winning the cup. Dallas and San Jose are next and the last three have a 6% or less chance.
Now that the first round is out, the last remaining Canadian team is my second favourite team in the league: the Montreal Canadiens. So since the Oil are down and out, I’m cheering for them. Push that 14.7% edge boys!
Heraldk
Predicting the NHL Playoffs 07/08
Apr 9th
I’ve become increasingly interested in computer solutions and simulations for domains where you might not expect something can be done. One domain that I’ve been more and more interested in is NHL hockey — a sport that I’m a fan of.
So before the 2007/2008 playoffs started, I decided to write a simulator that figured out how likely it was that each team won the stanley cup based on their regular season statistics. The results are below, with each team’s probability of making it past each round the numbers in the columns. So the Montreal Canadiens have a 72% chance of beating the bruins, and a 12.2% chance of winning the cup.
Montreal_Canadiens 0.720 0.446 0.264 0.122
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590 0.362 0.193 0.083
Washington_Capitals 0.481 0.224 0.097 0.033
New_Jersey_Devils 0.477 0.217 0.096 0.034
New_York_Rangers 0.523 0.250 0.116 0.043
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519 0.236 0.110 0.039
Ottawa_Senators 0.410 0.167 0.086 0.030
Boston_Bruins 0.280 0.098 0.039 0.010
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.811 0.622 0.449 0.330
San_Jose_Sharks 0.634 0.368 0.150 0.082
Minnesota_Wild 0.468 0.187 0.056 0.024
Anaheim_Ducks 0.414 0.182 0.069 0.033
Dallas_Stars 0.586 0.306 0.141 0.079
Colorado_Avalanche 0.532 0.178 0.068 0.031
Calgary_Flames 0.366 0.086 0.037 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.189 0.072 0.030 0.012
What’s startling is Detroit’s enormous 33% chance of winning the whole thing. A couple of other surprises include Dallas’ relatively high probability of winning the cup (7.9%). It’s much higher than the Ducks or Avs which are next to them in the standings.
How does this work? I basically calculate the average goals a team is expected to score against their opposing team by using the season goals-for and goals-against numbers. I use this to simulate games between teams and run entire playoff simulations. The probabilities above are simply the number of times that team reaches the next round divided by the number of simulations.
I don’t have very many features added in that I would like to add. One particular one is a recency statistic that increases the relevance of the last 20 games of the season. I expect that such a statistic will greatly increase San Jose and Washington’s chances of winning the cup and probably dampen Dallas’ chances.
Credit to Darse for giving me some hints and tips on how to create my simulator. Hopefully I’ll get a chance to work on it a bit more so that I can build in some more statistics to help it make a more informed decision.
Heraldk
Oiler Pregame
Feb 25th
My friend and roommate was kind enough to give me a spare ticket he had for a recent hockey game between the Oilers and the Minnesota Wild. It was a fun night, and our Oilers managed to win the game! I wish the Oilers had managed to put together a better season this year. It’s looking like they won’t make the playoffs this year 
Game On
Dec 4th
The past three games have been very encouraging for the Oilers. We’re battling through some pretty intense injury trouble, but with last night’s win in LA, we’re now just one game shy of .500, and a pair of points out of a playoff spot.
The two wins against Anaheim are HUGE for a couple of reasons. The first is obviously that wins are important against any team. But beating down Anaheim means that we are more likely to finish above them in the standings – meaning the draft pick we have from them is worth more than the one we gave up for Dustin Penner. The Kevin Lowe vs Brian Burke war seems to be evening out a little more. If the oilers can turn this season around, I think the Dustin Penner offer sheet was a pretty good move for Kevin Lowe – particularly since Penner has been playing better and better over the last few games.
The Edmonton Oilers, in the past couple of years, have been a frustratingly fun team to watch. Even in 05/06 when we made the run to the cup, the Oilers just squeaked into the playoffs. They did so by beating the good teams, and losing to the bad teams … which made no sense. Last year’s season was a terrible disappointment, but the team had so much trouble scoring. Add in the injury troubles that plagued the oilers in the late season, and it really was a recipe for disaster.
I still think the experts are crazy to think they can just write off the oilers as contenders. Anything can happen in the new NHL, and the oilers have a lot of the right ingredients to turn things around. Granted, they have a lot of young and unexperienced players on their team, but there is a lot of skill there, and if the elements click into place, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team playoff bound.
Heraldk
Maddening Oilers
Nov 16th
Man, I just can’t shake the feeling that the Oilers have some chance to go on a stretch of wins. They’ve got so much talent – they just can’t seem to put it together. Of course, the crazy number of injuries isn’t helping. If the Oilers started getting healthy all of a sudden, I think we’d be looking at a particularly good team.
The game last night against Vancouver was a lot of fun to watch. It was also a nail-biter, and every time Vancouver got some pressure on us I got nervous. But Mathieu Garon managed to put on A SHOW and stopped everything that Vancouver sent his way – including three shootout attempts! The Oil looked dangerous for parts of the game, but they seem to have this bad habit of giving the puck away in the neutral zone (or worse, in their own end). I don’t know how to get them to do this, but they need to be able to maintain control of the puck for longer parts of the game or we’re going to continue having trouble maintaining any pressure.
Tonight’s game was worse for that score. We just couldn’t keep constant pressure on the puck and it seemed like every second shift we’d give the puck away several times. Ewww. Hockey like that is maddening to watch for the fan. Glad to see Jarret Stoll get a couple goals though. They were a bit ugly, but I’m glad to see him snap his goal drought. Let’s hope he continues to recover last year’s form!
Maybe their play tonight was due to the back-to-back schedule. I sure hope they can start building some consistency into their game … if they do, and start to get healthy … I seriously think we’ve got a playoff bound team. Until then though, we’re in some trouble.
Heraldk
Predictions
Oct 3rd
I’m not going to give my predictions for the upcoming NHL season, although I suppose it has already started officially since there’s been a couple of games have been played over in London. I am, however, going to rant a little about the predictions of other “experts”. It seems that hockey experts agree that the Oilers have no shot at making the playoffs this year. I have one thing to say: why do these so called “experts” always sell the Oil short?
It doesn’t seem all that long ago when the Oilers were pushing for the 8th and final playoff spot a couple years ago. They were a team that was fighting it’s own potential. I knew the team had a lot of talent, but it seemed that every couple of games, they’d lose a you-should-win-this-game type scenario and they’d slip back a notch. They did it, but barely. In the first round that year, they were up against the high powered Detroit Red Wings. Everyone wrote Edmonton off and had them down in out quickly. Surprise, surprise when the Oil suddenly became the team they were capable of becoming and took down not only Detroit, but San Jose, Anaheim, and almost Carolina en route to the stanley cup final.
Last year was a painful year for the average Oiler fan. The team struggled in mediocrity for most of the season and then got hit by a terrible injury streak that took most of the regulars out of the lineup. As a result, the team skidded to a halt and failed to win most of their remaining games.
The offseason was a high-drama period where the Oilers made a large number of moves and almost completely re-tooled. Powered by the new blue-liners of Pitkanen and Souray, they have far more power on defence than they had last year. Penner adds some size and some scoring punch and Sanderson is a wily veteran who should contribute as well. The real exciting thing for this upcoming season though is the chance for some of the youth to shine. The Oilers have several young players, in addition to Ales Hemsky, who all have a shot of hitting it big this year. These guys include Gagner, Nilsson, Brodziak, Pouliot, and Cogliano. To me, this is super exciting … and I have a hard time believing that the Oilers are going to have trouble making the playoffs.
But lets take a look at what the experts think. One of the oft-quoted stats from last year is +/-. I’m not sure how they can compare player’s +/- stats correctly when these numbers are so very biased on the team they were playing for. For example, Souray and Pitkanen both played on teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year. This typically means that those teams got scored on more often than they scored (duh). So take two important defencemen who play big minutes for their teams and put them on clubs that are losing. What happens to their plus minus? It plummets. Whoop-dee-doo. I’m not saying the statistic is meaningless. I’m just saying that you need to make sure you keep in mind what you’re trying to compare.
A lot of analysis seems to compare how a team has changed from the previous year. Unfortunately, this also is a problem. How do the experts know that the “winners” of the free agency craziness (the rangers and the flyers) are going to gel and mesh the star players they signed? Who’s to say that teams with a bunch of young talent are going to not mesh and start winning games? The past doesn’t necessarily tell the future, folks – especially when so much has changed from last season.
One of the things I think many people forget is that the new collective bargaining agreement is giving teams some level ground to play on. It’s not completely level, that’s for sure, but teams are much more evenly matched than they used to be. Remember the Oiler’s heyday way back when they were winning cups every year? That team was so stacked that you had to expect great things from them. Fast forward to today – there are far fewer teams that looked that stacked in comparison. Maybe the penguins look a bit awesome at the moment … but the division from them to the next closest team is far smaller than for the Oilers back in the day. The salary cap helps balance out the skill players among the teams, and as a result, nearly any team has a chance to do well enough to hit the playoffs. So I don’t think last year means nearly as much as the experts seem to think. I also don’t think they have ever given the Oilers enough credit.
So I think the Oilers have a good chance of doing well this season, and we’ll just have to see how it turns out.
Go Oilers!
Heraldk
Match Aftermath
Jul 26th
So the match is over, and I had a mere four and a half hours of sleep. Ouch. Still, it was a lot of fun. I got up and got some coffee and breakfast at Tim Hortons before heading up to the poker round table. I think people’s tempers were short which meant that there was a bit of unhappiness amongst some of the team members. I hope things sorted themselves out, but it wasn’t too pretty for awhile. Anyways, it was cool to meet up with some people who’ve started to gather and research computers playing poker. It should be cool to see what these guys come up with as they come up to speed.
After the round table, I hung around to see the general games playing man-machine match. From what I’d heard, the generic game playing competition was poorly run this year, and it even ran with some controversy. The games that were selected for the playoffs were all very similar and were from a class of games that the best preliminary round player had trouble with. Ugh. Plus, the man-machine match they had was a little pathetic. The played a game that if the humans figured out how the rules work, it was trivial for them to win. So … that’s not a good thing to have in a “fair” match. Oh well. My friend Yngvi won the title, but that was partly due to an error by the other program. Yngvi himself knows the system for the games competition needs fixing, so hopefully changes are made soon.
After witnessing that, I worked on the man-machine web site for awhile as I spent my first session in a real AAAI talk. Heh – too much stuff for me to do. The man-machine web site needs a ton of work, but I’m gonna have to get to that slowly over the next few days. Lots of press articles to link to!
In the afternoon I got the video done that you see in the post before this. I felt that it needed to get done and uploaded since people needed to see what Ali and Phil said about the bots and the outcome of the match.
After that I hung around for awhile and ended up going to the poster session. That was really cool – there was a bunch of food, and I got to talk to a few people including Brett from the University of Minnesota who started working on poker. We talked for a long time about DIVAT and variance and vexbot, and … how to calculate celcius from fahrenheit. Fun times.
After the poster session, we had found out that there was going to be a huge fireworks display in town. Apparently they do a fireworks contest and so Spain’s turn was today and Canada’s turn is Saturday. So we bustled down to river front and I borrowed Neil’s tripod and I got a ton of photos. I hope some of them turned out! It was hard since people kept moving into my photo 
So now I’m just waiting for my photos to finish copying and then I’m gonna crash for the night. G’nite all!
Heraldk
A New Edmonton Arena
Apr 27th
Anyone who’s been reading the journal lately knows that there seems to be an ongoing debate over the council’s investigation into building a new arena in downtown Edmonton to replace Rexall Place. There’s been a barrage of articles over the past few days pointing out some of the advantages and disadvantages to the proposal … and I guess I shouldn’t be surprised there is such hot debate over the topic. It is, after all, a large investment of city resources. I’m cautiously in favour of a new arena in the downtown core, but I’ve been waiting to weigh in on the issue until I’d read a few more articles in the paper.
I think today’s article by Scott McKeen convinces me that it’s a good idea, and touches on many of the complaints that people have with the arena.
So, why do we need a new arena? Well the reality of the situation is that Rexall is aging – particularly when compared to arenas in other cities. It’s the 2nd oldest building the remains in active use in the NHL. From the Oiler’s perspective, its hard to remain competitive if they can’t sell as many seats or luxury boxes as other teams. If you’ve been reading my blog, you know I’m an Oiler fanboy, so you’ll know that I’m biased about this from the start. But before you chastise me for being biased, Scott McKeen makes the point that Rexall is not just used for Oiler games… a new arena would be usable to attract some of the world’s biggest musical acts as well. Not only that, one should only look back to this time last year when the Oilers were making their unlikely run through the playoffs to know how important the Oilers are to this city. Don’t you think they deserve the chance to remain competitive – particularly when a competitive Oiler team makes this city swell with pride?
So I believe a new arena is warranted. So what are the issues? Well cost is one big one. Already though, it looks like there are several options that will require much less taxpayer dollars to build the arena. As the committee looks at it in more detail, we’ll see what they come up with. However, several people more in the know than I remain confident that much of the cost can be absorbed from other sources. Sounds good to me.
As to the location – why not build the arena downtown? Downtown is starting to get much more lively as we are finally seeing condos being built in the core. (I’m happy that the city is finally starting to build up a little – the sprawl of this city is kind of disgusting). Building the arena downtown can only help – particularly since the current proposal is to build it in an area of downtown that isn’t exactly bustling at the moment. You have to go west of city hall to really see active part of downtown. Thousands of people pouring into downtown to watch the latest hockey game or concert — sounds like a good plan to get people downtown. The inevitable businesses that pop up around and in the facility will help draw people to arrive downtown early and have them stay late.
To be honest, I am a little biased. And I don’t know all the issues. I do however, have a hard time believing that this isn’t a good idea for the city. Many articles have pointed at other cities and the success of downtown arenas there — places like Vancouver and Columbus and Denver and … well I forget all of them, but there’s quite a few. I don’t know all the information, but maybe someone can point out to me why a new downtown arena in Edmonton can hurt us.
Heraldk
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