Heraldk.ca

Gee, this blog has languished in rather unmaintained fashion. Someday I’ll give this blog the love it deserves.

At any rate, I wasn’t totally sure if the simulator would work all that well on the shortened season this year. Given that there’s less data, and teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh went on some ridiculous runs during this season … well, I don’t really know how this will go. But hey, lets give it another spin shall we? The following is a one million playoffs simulation, just like the previous ones…


Pittsburgh   0.812 0.560 0.380 0.209
Montreal     0.556 0.310 0.131 0.052
Washington   0.487 0.240 0.095 0.035
Boston       0.597 0.299 0.140 0.059
Toronto      0.403 0.162 0.060 0.020
NY Rangers   0.513 0.219 0.100 0.039
Ottawa       0.444 0.145 0.070 0.025
NY Islanders 0.188 0.064 0.023 0.006

Chicago      0.871 0.689 0.531 0.368
Anaheim      0.592 0.355 0.132 0.060
Vancouver    0.482 0.200 0.054 0.019
St Louis     0.495 0.221 0.078 0.032
Los Angeles  0.505 0.228 0.081 0.033
San Jose     0.518 0.167 0.058 0.021
Detroit      0.408 0.097 0.048 0.018
Minnesota    0.129 0.043 0.016 0.004

Chicago and Pittsburgh are heavy favourites as you can imagine. Boston looks like a sweet spot in the East though. San Jose being favourite over Vancouver and the Rangers being favourite over Washington both make sense given the comparatively weaker 3rd seed.

Hope you enjoy the post season!

Heraldk

Ahh, playoff hockey. The last update was rushed, so I’ll go back to the first round to have a look at how we’ve done so far:

NY Rangers   0.657 0.391 0.180 0.093
Boston       0.807 0.566 0.354 0.218
Florida      0.305 0.056 0.012 0.003
Pittsburgh   0.629 0.374 0.214 0.123
Philadelphia 0.371 0.178 0.080 0.037
New Jersey   0.695 0.282 0.103 0.043
Washington   0.193 0.058 0.019 0.006
Ottawa       0.343 0.096 0.037 0.014



Vancouver    0.641 0.407 0.227 0.118
St Louis     0.650 0.408 0.234 0.124
Phoenix      0.516 0.194 0.074 0.026
Nashville    0.417 0.206 0.094 0.039
Detroit      0.583 0.333 0.179 0.088
Chicago      0.484 0.171 0.061 0.020
San Jose     0.350 0.139 0.064 0.024
Los Angeles  0.359 0.143 0.067 0.025


This has been a strange playoffs. “Home Advantage” didn’t seem to offer the benefit it usually does, and we saw pre-playoff favourites Boston, Pittsburgh and Vancouver all fall in the first round. Oops. As a result, the predictor did worse than in past years, going 5/8. Of the series, I watched a bunch of the Pittsburgh/Philadelphia series. It was one of the more entertaining series … but a little crazy that Pittsburgh gave up big leads to lose games they probably should’ve won.

On to the next round!

NY Rangers   0.717 0.416 0.223
Philadelphia 0.546 0.276 0.132
New Jersey   0.454 0.210 0.092
Washington   0.283 0.098 0.031



St_Louis     0.643 0.410 0.249
Phoenix      0.436 0.168 0.072
Nashville    0.564 0.248 0.122
Los Angeles  0.357 0.174 0.079


Yikes, what a weird playoffs. The Rangers nearly fell to washington in 7 games, and if they had the predictor would’ve completely bricked this round. 1/4 isn’t too bad right? The Kings are putting on a clinic for how to knock off the top seeds in the conference. Apparently they are the first #8 seed team to ever defeat the number 1 and 2 seeds in a single NHL playoff – and they made it look easy. Now if only I had picked them in my playoff pools …

In the East, the Devils made fairly short work of the Flyers – a team that has a lot of offensive firepower but their goaltending has struggled … and the rangers had a lot more trouble than expected against washington. The Capitals sure got a lot of benefit from some fine goaltending from their 3rd string goalie. Wow did Holtby ever play well. But it wasn’t quite enough to beat the rangers.

Alright, so the conference finals are up next. Here’s what the predictor says for the matchups:


NY Rangers   0.601 0.370
New Jersey   0.399 0.206



Phoenix      0.478 0.196
Los Angeles  0.522 0.228


The rangers are favourites as expected, but I expect them to have problems with the Devils. The Devils are relatively rested and the Rangers have had two game 7′s already.

In the West, Phoenix and LA make a pretty unlikely matchup. The simulator likes LA, and I do as well – they seem to have the right combination of depth, hot goaltending, and confidence … and Phoenix should be a relatively easy opponent compared to Vancouver and St. Louis.

Herald

Greetings once again!

I had grandiose plans of getting a new version of the simulator done in time for the playoffs this year. Oops – looks like the playoffs are going to start before I get there. Damn.

Oh well – for now, here’s the old simulator run for the first round. Maybe I’ll get around to the new version before the end of the playoffs. No guarantees though.


NY Rangers   0.657 0.391 0.180 0.093
Boston       0.807 0.566 0.354 0.218
Florida      0.305 0.056 0.012 0.003
Pittsburgh   0.629 0.374 0.214 0.123
Philadelphia 0.371 0.178 0.080 0.037
New Jersey   0.695 0.282 0.103 0.043
Washington   0.193 0.058 0.019 0.006
Ottawa       0.343 0.096 0.037 0.014



Vancouver    0.641 0.407 0.227 0.118
St Louis     0.650 0.408 0.234 0.124
Phoenix      0.516 0.194 0.074 0.026
Nashville    0.417 0.206 0.094 0.039
Detroit      0.583 0.333 0.179 0.088
Chicago      0.484 0.171 0.061 0.020
San Jose     0.350 0.139 0.064 0.024
Los Angeles  0.359 0.143 0.067 0.025


Some interesting matchups in the first round, with Boston benefitting the most according to goal differential against the Capitals. As a result, the Bruins are relatively heavy favourites to win the cup again – but less so than the predictor predicted for the Canucks last year (21.8% for the Bruins this year compared to 29% for the Canucks last year). Florida, despite getting home ice advantage and 3rd in the East have basically no shot at the cup – being underdogs to the Devils. Phoenix is in a similar position, but the predictor still likes their chances against first round Chicago.

Boston, St Louis, Vancouver, and Pittsburgh are the favourites in this year’s playoffs. I’m looking forward to watching some playoff hockey again!!

Herald

Well that was a fun round. Dwayne Roloson and the Tampa Bay Lightning very nearly toppled Boston. It was a pretty sick run for that team. Vancouver kind of waltzed past the San Jose, although it was a pretty hard fought series. Here’s how the predictor did for this round:


Boston_Bruins       0.718 0.315
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066


Vancouver_Canucks   0.707 0.480
San_Jose_Sharks     0.293 0.139

The predictor goes 2/2 this round, for an overall record of 11/14.

Boston_Bruins           0.377
Vancouver_Canucks       0.623


The predictor likes Vancouver, and I wouldn’t mind seeing the cup come back to Canada. As an Oiler fan it is a bit painful to see the Canucks succeed … but I guess I couldn’t begrudge them winning their first cup. I’m a bit conflicted though — I entered a playoff pool and have in that Boston to beat Vancouver. If that happens, I win the 126 entrant for-bragging-rights pool. So I guess the series is win-win for me. I’m looking forward to watching the matches from Canada!

Herald